November 7, 2023

Russian agriculture ministry proposes suspension of durum wheat exports

Russia's agriculture ministry has proposed a ban on durum wheat exports for six months starting on December 1.

The move could further tighten world supplies of durum wheat at a time when harvests in top producer Canada and other countries have been hurt by extreme weather conditions.

Russia is one of the world's largest producers of wheat, and the biggest exporter of the grain. Although durum represents only about 1% of Russia's total wheat production, the export ban is aimed at ensuring adequate durum supplies and containing prices in its domestic market.

Russia's wheat crop saw record yields in the latest year, according to Gro's Russia Wheat Yield Forecast Model. The country's total wheat exports are forecast to increase by some 6% in the 2023/24 marketing year, which ends next June, from 47 million tonnes a year earlier, in part due to Russia's competitive export prices.

Russia typically exports durum wheat to Italy and Turkey, along with smaller quantities to China. Early in the current marketing year, the country exported 52,000 tonnes to Italy, a near 20-fold jump versus a year earlier. Exports also surged to Turkey throughout 2022 and early 2023, likely drawing down Russian inventories.

Italy is a major importer of durum, traditionally sourcing mainly from Canada. But with Canadian supplies tight, Italy has turned to other nations for a much larger share.

Russia has resorted to grain trade restrictions multiple times in recent years in efforts to quell domestic food price inflation. Export curbs in 2021/22, for example, resulted in a year-over-year decline in Russian wheat exports of about 40%.

- Gro Intelligence