November 06, 2003

India's Soy Products Update 2003 - Record Soybean Crop Seen

Expected Record Soybean Crop

Adequate rains during the critical growth stages in most crop growing regions are expected to lead to increased MY 2003 oilseeds production, estimated at 27.6 million tons.

Increased sowing boosted by record prices in MY 2002, aided by the normal monsoon rains, is expected to lead to a record soybean crop estimate of 6.8 million tons. Despite increased production, current soybean prices in various major domestic markets range from $289 - 300/ton. 

Resurgence of Soybean Meal

Shrinking world soybean meal supplies, due to a lower US soybean crop, and increased domestic production are expected to result in a resurgence of Indian soybean meal exports, estimated at 2.7 million tons for MY 2003.  Lower production and strong domestic demand during MY 2002 resulted in reduced soybean meal exports, estimated at 1.3 million tons.

Fall in Soybean Oil Consumption

Increased MY 2003 domestic edible oil production, estimated at 6.0 million tons, and firm international prices are estimated to lead to a reduced import demand for edible oils estimated at 4.6 million tons.  Coupled with strengthening world soybean oil prices, this is expected to result in lower imports of 900,000 tons in MY 2003 than in the previous year.  Soybean oil consumption is estimated to drop by 100,000 tons to 1.95 million tons in 2003 due to restricted supplies and an expected strengthening of soybean oil prices. 

Source: USDA