November 5, 2022

US pork output down so far in 2022 compared to last year

Pork production in US has reached 9.11 million tonnes so far in 2022, 2% lower compared to last year due to lower swine inventories and reduced farrowing's, as the month of September saw breeding numbers drop for the ninth consecutive time at an estimated 181,000 head lower since September 2020, the UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board reported.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects the country's pork output for the entire year to reach 12.32 million tonnes, a 2% decrease from 2021. Pork production in the US is projected to largely recover in 2023, growing by 1% as a result of heavier carcase weights.

1.25 million tonnes of fresh and frozen pork have been exported from the US so far this year (Jan-Aug). The decreased demand from China and Southeast Asia is the main cause of the 19% (285,000 tonnes) decline from the same period in 2021. Following African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in the area, demand for these regions peaked in 2020 and 2021. But the revival of the Chinese swine herd and greater domestic supplies have lowered recent import demand.

Similar to China, US pork trade has decreased during the past few years with Canada, and Japan, but trade with Mexico has increased. Mexico is currently the biggest consumer of US pork, and so far in 2022, it has boosted its US pork imports by 18% (81,000 tonnes) compared to the same period in 2021.

While the US is expected to produce more pork in 2023, overall exports are expected to decline by 2% from 2018. Reductions in demand from importing markets are anticipated to be fueled by the weak US currency and slow global economic development. Exports from the US are still anticipated to exceed average export volumes for the years 2017 to 2019.

-      UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board