November 4, 2010

 

La Nina reduces Argentine rains, slows soy sowing

Rainfall was below average in parts of Argentina's crop belt last month, delaying some 2010/11 soy plantings in the first clear sign of the La Nina weather phenomenon, a meteorologist said.

 

The South American country is the top global supplier of soyoil and soymeal and the third-biggest exporter of uncrushed beans, so markets are closely watching for any signs of dry conditions that could harm crops.

 

Memories of the sharp 2008/09 drought are still fresh in farmers' minds, but so far this season rains have been plentiful, despite pre-sowing forecasts that La Nina would mean drier weather.

 

"In October, the rains were far below their usual levels in Entre Rios, large swathes of Santa Fe, northern Cordoba and much of northeastern Buenos Aires," said German Heinzenknecht, an agricultural weather specialist at the Applied Climatology Consultancy in Buenos Aires province.

 

The central provinces of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Santa Fe are Argentina's top three soy-producing regions.

 

Argentine farmers started planting new-season soy last month, some bringing forward their planting plans in a bid to dodge dry weather that is expected to arrive in earnest later in the year and into early 2011.

 

"Although it's still early to be sure of it, La Nina's impact is here," Heinzenknecht said, adding that sowing had come to a standstill in some places late last month until weekend rains moistened soils.

 

Despite such sporadic delays, soy sowing is ahead of last year's planting pace, according to the latest figures provided by Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.

 

The better-than-expected weather conditions have boosted forecasts for Argentina's 2010/11 harvest.

 

Agriculture Minister Julian Dominguez has forecast soy output at 52 million tonnes, almost unchanged from the last record harvest of 52.7 million tonnes.

 

More rains are expected next weekend, which could spur a rapid advance in soy and corn planting. Corn sowing starts earlier than soy seeding in Argentina and farmers already have sown about 70% of estimated area.

 

The government also sees corn production climbing to a record 26 million tonnes from the previous crop of 22.7 million tonnes.

 

For the last two months of the year, rains are expected to remain below average. "What we'll have after this weekend is a period of two months that will be tricky. Farmers are always going to be looking at the sky and waiting for rains to arrive," said Heinzenknecht.

 

But he added that it would not compare with the sharp drought of two years ago. "It's not that we're not going to have any rain, just that what we get will be less than normal," he said, saying that conditions would be better in southern parts of Buenos Aires and Cordoba provinces and in La Pampa.