November 2, 2009
CWB to export less grain in 2009-10
The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) plans to export nine-percent less grain in the year ending July 31, 2010, said CWB's chief operating office on Friday (Oct 30).
The decision was based on the poor early growing season weather, which made wheat and barley crops smaller than a year ago.
The crops recovered from a potentially disastrous start with record-hot September weather to accelerate maturity and allow the CWB to project exports at typical levels, Ward Weisensel said.
It has been a volatile year and CWB is very lucky to see the September as it was, he said.
The first killing frost, which can appear as early as late August, did not show up until a month later, giving crops time to mature and improving crop size and quality, he said.
CWB expects to export at least 17.5 million tonnes of grain in 2009-10, Weisensel said, up from a July 30 estimate of 15.5 million tonnes.
But in 2008/09, it exported 19.3 million tonnes of grain, the highest volume in nine years.
The CWB is one of the world's biggest grain marketers, with net revenue of C$6 billion (US$5.5 billion) last year.
The CWB expects wheat exports of 12.5 million tonnes, down from 13.3 million tonnes last year.
Barley exports should total 1.5 million to 1.7 million tonnes, down from 2.4 million tonnes last year, depending on feed barley prices. Canadian prices are currently higher than international values, Weisensel said.
The Canadian dollar, which flirted with parity against the US dollar this month, before dropping to the 92.5 US cent level, could reduce export targets if it moves past the mid-90 US cent level, Weisensel said.
A rising dollar makes Canadian grain exports less attractive.
The global wheat crop is smaller than last year, but still large. The market is pricing high-quality, high-protein wheat at a premium, Weisensel said.
World importers are buying grain as needed, rather than building inventory, because of earlier falling prices, but that may change with prices stabilising, Weisensel said.
