October 30, 2025

Thai financial firm projects weaker CPF Q3 2025 earnings, expects rebound in Q4

Philip Securities (Thailand) anticipates that Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited (CPF) will post weaker Q3 2025 results, citing declining pork prices in both domestic and international markets.

However, the brokerage foresees a rebound starting in Q4 as pork prices recover following the engine of the vegetarian festival, signalling a bottom has likely been reached. For the full year, CPF's profit is forecast to grow, thanks to a low base last year and persistently low raw material costs. Philip maintains a "BUY" recommendation with a target price of 2025 ฿27.50 per share, representing an upside of around 30%.

CPF posted a net profit of ฿18.9 billion in the first half of 2025, up 133% year-on-year, driven by high pork prices in Thailand and abroad, lower feed costs, efficient expense management and increased profit sharing from associates. Revenue was ฿291 billion (+1 YoY, +6% YoY, excluding foreign exchange or FX impact), with gross profits of ฿55.3 billion (gross margin 19.1% vs 14.6% last year).

For Q3, Philip projects a double-digit earnings decline, pressured by falling pork prices. In Thailand, average pork prices dropped by 27% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 4.4% YoY amid disease outbreaks while China continues to face price pressure from local overproduction (-6.1% QoQ, -29.5% YoY).

Looking to Q4, Philip expect pork prices to have already hit bottom in September, with recovery likely after the vegetarian festival, driven by support policies, easing labour shortages, entry into high season and potential government stimulus. These factors should lift both pork and chicken prices and support earnings growth QoQ and YoY.

CPF recently announced a share repurchase programme worth up to ฿8 billion (maximum 350 million shares or 4.16%  of shares outstanding) from October 8, 2025 to April 7, 2026. The buyback is aimed at improving liquidity and enhancing returns to shareholders, helping to limit stock downside during the industry downturn.

-        Kaohoo International