October 30, 2003

 

 

China's Livestock Products And Corn Price Trend - September, 2003

 

An eFeedLink Exclusive Report

 

According to the statistics of 450 market surveys, prices of livestock products and corn in China rose amid general stability during the month of September.  Compared to August, prices of all livestock products and corn showed increases.  Compared to the same period last year, the prices of most livestock products and corn moved up generally; only the prices of poultry products took a dive.  As the price increases for live hog were greater than those for corn, the hog-to-grain price ratio rose to 1: 5.73, up by 0.15% over the month of August, and by 0.35% over the same period last year.   

 

1.    Hog Products

 

In September, prices of piglets in China were at RMB 8.59 /kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 4.5% and a year-on-year increase of 11.1%.  The rates of increases were also up, by 1.5% compared to August; and by 3% over the same period last year.

 

Price wise, only Chongqing and the province of Sichuan registered prices which were at or less than RMB 6.50 /kg, at RMB 6.16 /kg and RMB 6.06 /kg respectively.    The five areas with prices at or higher than RMB 10.00 /kg were: Beijing(RMB 10.13 /kg), Shanxi province(RMB 10.46 /kg), Inner Mongolia(RMB 11.26 /kg), Gansu province(RMB 11.27 /kg) and Xinjiang province(RMB 10.45 /kg).  The number of provinces with prices between RMB 6.50 /kg and RMB 10.00 /kg rose to twenty-three, among which, Sichuan province reported the lowest price, while Gansu province, the highest.

 

Compared to August, the provinces which recorded price increases exceeding 10% were: Jiangsu(RMB 10.8%), Zhejiang(11.3%), Hubei(12.8%), Hunan(18.7%) and Hainan(14.4%); while major hog producing provinces like Hebei and Sichuan registered a drop of 2.7% and 1.8%, respectively.

 

Compared to the same period last year, prices in China's eastern and southern provinces were generally up; while those in the south western and north western regions fell.  Among the fourteen provinces which recorded double-digit growth rates, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Jiangxi reported rates which higher than 30%; while the rates of price decrease recorded in Chongqing and the province of Sichuan were 15.3% and 18.5%, respectively.         

 

At RMB 6.59 /kg, the average price of live hog in September registered a month-on-month increase of 4.4% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%.

 

Areas with prices at or below RMB 5.80 /kg (considered as low-price regions) were Chongqing(RMB 5.60 /kg) and the province of Sichuan(RMB 5.47 /kg).  The number of provinces with prices at or higher than RMB 6.80 /kg (considered as high-price regions) increased from six in August to twelve in September; among which, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Hainan and Qinghai reported prices which exceeded RMB 7.00 /kg.  Prices in sixteen provinces were in the mid-range of RMB 5.80-6.80 /kg.

 

Compared to August, higher rates of increase in prices of live hogs were recorded in the provinces of Zhejiang, Hubei and Hunan.  Compared to the same period last year, sixteen provinces recorded rates of price increase which are above 10%, among which, Jiangsu, zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan reported rates exceeding 20%.  Only two provinces, Sichuan and Gansu recorded decreasing rates of 4.4% and 2.3% respectively.

 

At RMB 11.03 /kg, pork prices showed a month-on-month increase of 4.0%; and a year-on-year increase of 9.1%.  Regions with prices at or below RMB 10.00 /kg were: Beijing and the provinces of Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Yunnan and Ningxia.  Fifteen provinces recorded prices which were at or above RMB11.00 /kg, among which, Shanghai, Anghui, Hubei and Hunan reported prices higher than RMB 12.00 /kg, with Shanghai continuing to register the highest price in the whole of China.  Compared to August, falls in prices of pork were recorded mainly in the northwestern regions; whereas when compared to the same period last year, falls were recorded in the southwestern provinces of China.

 

Prices of live hog have risen continuously over the past four months, with the rates of price increase escalating in the months of August and September.  Compared to the current year's low in May, prices of piglets, live hog and pork had risen by 13% in September.  Compared to the same period last year, the increase was 10%.

 

Average prices of piglets, live hog and pork for the first three quarters of this year are at RMB 7.95 /kg, RMB 5.99 /kg and RMB 10.23 /kg, respectively.  Compared to the same period last year, the rates of increases are 1.5%, 3.7% and 1.4% respectively.

 

Overall, the continual rise in prices of piglets is likely to exert unfavorable market impact on the production and sale of live hog in the next season.

 

2.    Poultry Products

 

At RMB 5.66 /kg, the price of egg showed a month-on-month increase of 6.2%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%.  Whereas, ten provinces had recorded egg prices at or less than RMB 4.00 /kg in July, with the number decreasing to two in August, there was none in September.  In September, the lowest price of RMB 4.42 /kg was recorded in the province of Heilongjiang.  The number of provinces with egg prices at RMB 6.00 /kg or higher increased from six in August to nine in September; with Guizhou province reporting the highest price in China, at RMB 8.14 /kg.

 

Compared to August, egg prices had risen in all the provinces; with Jilin province recording the highest rate of price increase of 20%.  Compared to the same period last year, prices in fourteen provinces had either remained unchanged or showed increases; whereas for the previous month of August, only the province of Hainan registered a year-on-year increase in egg prices.

 

In September, prices of poultry products continued to rebound generally, although when compared to the same period last year, only the prices of live chickens and foreign packaged chickens showed increases.  While the average prices of poultry products for the first three quarters of this year are higher than those of August, they are still lower than those of the same period last year.  At RMB 5.22 /kg, RMB 8.87 /kg and RMB 9.11 /kg respectively, the average prices of eggs, live chickens and foreign packaged chickens showed a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, 4.1% and 2.6%, respectively.

 

Analysts forecast that with the reduction in market supply of eggs as a result of earlier dip in egg prices, the prices of poultry products are expected to move up in the near term.

 

3.    Beef and Mutton Products

 

At RMB 15.26 /kg, the price of beef showed a month-on-month increase of 1.2%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.1%.  The three provinces with beef prices at or lower than RMB 14.00 /kg were: Shanxi, Sichuan and Qinghai.  Those with beef prices at or higher than RMB 19.00 /kg were Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong.  For the first three quarters of this year, the average price of beef  is at RMB 15.10 /kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.

 

At RMB 15.89 /kg, the price of mutton showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, and a year-on-year increase of0.9%.  The seven provinces which recorded prices at or below RMB 14.00 /kg were: the major mutton producing province of Hebei(RMB 13.93 /kg), Inner Mongolia(RMB 13.86 /kg), Anhui(RMB12.85 /kg) and Qinghai(which registered the lowest price of RMB 11.93 /kg).  Provinces which recorded prices at or higher than RMB 19.00 /kg were: Shanghai(RMB 20.5 /kg), Fujian(RMB 22.45 /kg), Guangdong(RMB 20.56 /kg) and Hainan(RMB 24.75 /kg).  The average price of mutton for the first three quarters of this year is RMB 15.92 /kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 1%.

 

4.    Corn

 

At RMB 1.15 /kg, September's corn price increased by 1.8% over the previous month's, and showed a year-on-year increase of 5.7%.  Prices in the corn producing provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang were at RMB 1.03 /kg, RMB 0.99 /kg and RMB 0.99 /kg, respectively; showing a month-on-month increase of 3%, 1% and 3.1% respectively.  Compared to the same period last year, prices were up by 4.2%, 6.4% and 7.1%, respectively.

 

On the other hand, prices in the corn marketing provinces of Fujian(RMB 1.28 /kg), Guangdong(RMB1.34 /kg) and Hainan(RMB 1.42 /kg) remained relatively unchanged over the previous month's.  Compared to the same period last year, prices in these provinces were up by 2.2%, 4.6% and 0.5%, respectively.

 

In the southwestern and northwestern provinces, September's corn prices were lower than those of the previous month and of the same period last year.

 

The average corn price for the first three quarters of this year is at RMB 1.11 /kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%.

 

As the prices of live hog and eggs rose by greater margins than those of corn prices, the hog-to-feed and egg-to-feed price ratios for the month of September continued to rise, at 1: 5.73 and 1: 4.92, respectively.  With additional supply of new corn in China's market, prices are likely to remain stable with marginal increases in the near term.