October 29, 2004


IGC Ups 2004-05 World Wheat Output By 2 Million MT To 617 Million MT

Following is the updated world grain supply and demand forecast from the International Grains Council in its October monthly market review, released Thursday.
All figures are in millions of metric tons.
FOR 2004-05:
                      Oct      Change from     Change
                    estimate  Sept estimate  from 03-04
Wheat output          617           2         11.37%
Wheat trade           101        Unch         -0.98%
Wheat use             606        Unch          2.54%
Wheat stocks          138        Unch          9.52% 
Major exporters -a   50        Unch         25.00%
Coarse grain output   987          24          7.99%
Coarse grain trade    103        Unch         -1.90%
Coarse grain use      967           9          2.65%
Coarse grain stocks   156          15         14.71%
  Major exporters -a   75          12         47.06%
FOR 2003-04
                      Oct     Change from     Change
                    estimate  Sept estimate  from 02-03
Wheat output          554        Unch         -2.12%
Wheat trade           102        Unch         -2.86%
Wheat use             591           2         -1.50%
Wheat stocks          126          -3        -23.17%
  Major exporters -a   40        Unch          2.56%
Coarse grain output   914           4          3.63%
Coarse grain trade    105        Unch          Unch%
Coarse grain use      942           2          3.86%
Coarse grain stocks   136        Unch        -17.07%
  Major exporters -a   51           1        -10.53%
FOR 2002-03
                      Oct     Change from     Change
                    estimate  Sept estimate  from 01-02
Wheat output          566        Unch         -2.58%
Wheat trade           105        Unch         -1.87%
Wheat use             600           1          2.39%
Wheat stocks          164        Unch        -16.75%
  Major exporters -a   39        Unch        -22.00%
Coarse grain output   882        Unch         -2.11%
Coarse grain trade    105        Unch         -0.94%
Coarse grain use      907           1         -0.22%
Coarse grain stocks   164        Unch        -13.23%
  Major exporters -a   57        Unch        -20.83%
a = Stocks held by major exporters (the European Union, the US, Australia, Canada and Argentina).
The IGC upped its estimate for 2004-05 world wheat output to a record 617 million tons for its October report, mainly due to the good harvest results in Europe and the US, where yields have been "higher than expected," the report said.
Despite an extended growing season this year in the northern hemisphere, the IGC said that weather-delayed harvests affected quality in many countries including substantial downgrading of spring wheat in Canada while weather in the southern hemisphere is expected to lower yields in parts of Australia.
Although a record global wheat crop is forecast, consumption levels are held unchanged at 606 million tons as feed compounders look to use even cheaper corn and soymeal, the IGC said.
Corn production is raised 23 million tons to 686 million tons based on a larger-than-expected crop in the US as well as the E.U., Romania, China and the CIS. Consumption is also seen increased due to low prices against wheat and barley for feeding.
Corn trade is seen falling by 4% to 77.2 million tons as more corn remains on domestic markets for feed as well as a drop in E.U. imports, the report said.
Barley consumption is seen higher due to greater feed use in the E.U., US and Canada, especially the latter where larger supplies and weaker prices make it more competitive than corn.
The IGC also boosted its barley export forecast for the E.U. to 2.5 million tons, up 800,000 tons over last month, due to the re-introduction of export refunds.