October 28, 2022
USDA provides mixed findings for world's meat markets in 2023
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has provided mixed findings in its latest report for worldwide beef, pork, and chicken production and trade, the UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board reported.
The USDA said in 2023, there will be a slight decrease in global beef production, to 59.2 million tonnes. Despite the fact that increases in production are anticipated in China, Brazil, and Australia, these will be counterbalanced by decreases in the US and the EU.
Global exports are also anticipated to fall, declining 1.2% to 12.1 million tonnes in 2023. This is related to decreased demand, especially from China. As supplies become more scarce in important rivals like Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and India, Brazil is anticipated to set a record for export volume. Reduced production is also anticipated to restrict shipments from the US and Canada to Southeast Asia, which is anticipated to be advantageous for Australia.
The world is expected to produce 111.0 million tonnes more pork next year, a 1% increase. Most of this growth is attributed to China's (+2.0%) rising production. Production is also anticipated to rise in the US, Brazil, and Mexico by 0.7%, 1.6%, and 4.6%, respectively. Production in the EU and the UK is anticipated to decrease due to rising feed and energy costs, environmental restrictions, and weaker demand.
Global exports are anticipated to fall by 1.6% to 10.5 million tonnes in 2023, despite production being predicted to increase. This is primarily caused by a decline in Chinese import demand, where the increased domestic supply will eliminate the need for imports. Due to decreased opportunities to export pig meat to China as well as decreased production, EU exports are anticipated to fall by 3.6% in 2023. ASF problems aside, the Philippines' import demand is also anticipated to decrease (-18.2%) as import-favouring policies expire at the end of 2022.
As for poultry, it is predicted that the world's production of chicken meat will increase 1.8% to 102.7 million tonnes. All significant producers outside of China are anticipated to see an increase in production, despite the fact that high feed and energy costs are reducing profitability globally. Strong demand from consumers looking for less expensive animal proteins in the face of rising food prices is what is driving this.
There will be 14.1 million tonnes of chicken meat exported worldwide, a 3.7% increase from the current level. Strong demand in Brazil, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, the US, and the EU is what is fueling the growth. As its main competitors struggle to increase their exportable supplies, Brazil appears to be in a good position to meet the majority of this increased demand. Its ability to supply halal goods, competitive pricing, and access to the EU market make it the top exporter in the world, accounting for more than one-third of all shipments.
- UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board