October 27, 2025

 

China delays soybean buying as Brazil prices remain elevated, traders report

China has so far secured little of its soybean supply for December and January, as elevated premiums for Brazilian cargoes deter buyers — a situation that may lead Beijing to draw on state reserves to cover short-term demand, according to three trade sources.

 

China still needs to purchase about 8–9 million metric tonnes of soybeans for December-January shipment after covering cargoes through November with hefty purchases of Argentine beans in recent weeks, the sources said. Escalating Washington-Beijing trade tensions continue to shut out US supplies.

 

"China is not buying US beans because of the trade war and Brazilian beans are too expensive," said one oilseed trader at an international trading company which supplies agricultural products to China.

 

"China might end up using its own reserves for the year-end and early next year, before the new South American harvest comes in." he said.

 

Brazilian soybean premiums are holding at US$2.8-US$2.9 per bushel over the November Chicago soybean contract SX25 (November 2025 Chicago Board Of Trade or CBOT soybean futures contract) compared with US premiums at around US$1.7 per bushel.

 

Crush margins have been in negative territory CNSOY-RZO-MRG (crush margin for soybeans in Rizhao, China) for most of the second half of the year.

 

Crushers have little motivation to secure December-January soybean cargoes as supplies from Brazil have squeezed their margins, said a Shanghai-based trader.

 

Chinese buyers are hoping that an early and record soybean harvest in Brazil in early 2026 will help ease prices.

 

Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest a record 177.64 million metric tonnes of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, around 6 million tonnes more than the previous year, Brazilian crop agency Conab said.

 

"We think new crop shipments from Brazil can start at end of January," said a second oilseed trader. Sources declined to be named as they were not authorised to speak to media.

 

US-China Soybean Talks

 

Chinese buyers have also not yet entirely written off US supplies, with oilseed processors likely to make purchases for December-January if there is a trade agreement between the two governments, traders and analysts said.

 

"If a deal goes through, Chinese buyers will likely turn to US beans for the two-month window, with prices more attractive than South American offers," said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting.

 

Soybeans are expected to feature on the agenda for a potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. Beijing has, however, yet to publicly confirm the talks.

 

President Trump accused China of "purposefully" avoiding US soybean purchases, calling it an "economically hostile act" that has "caused difficulties" for American soybean farmers.

 

Since the first Trump administration, China has diversified its soybean imports. In 2024, China bought roughly 20% of its soybeans from the US, down from 41% in 2016, customs data shows.

 

-      Successful Farming