October 25, 2012

Ukraine's corn export to Far East countries may double

Over the next marketing year, Ukrainian corn export to the Far East countries may increase two-fold.

Those data were published by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, the UKRINFORM correspondent reports.

"Considerable export potential of Ukrainian corn, an attractive price against the US corn, as well as stated intentions of China regarding Ukrainian grain import, give all grounds to forecast potential corn export from Ukraine to the Far East up to four million tonnes this marketing year (MY)," expert of plant growing markets of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club Roman Slasten maintains.

According to him, Ukrainian corn actually forces out US corn, dominating on the Far East market, and next year it will expand its presence in this region.

According to the Agribusiness Club, in 2011-12 MY, Ukraine exported 1.95 million tonnes of corn to the Far East countries. At the same time, over 90% of supplies were made to Japan and South Korea, which are known as the world's largest importing countries of corn. Therefore, by results of 2011-12 MY, Ukraine's share made up 12% of total volume of corn import to South Korea and 6% of imports to Japan, whereas a year earlier, presence of Ukrainian corn in those countries was actually equal zero.

"Naturally, such countries will strive to replenish their buffer stocks and this is possibility for producers and exporters of Ukrainian corn. In addition, Ukraine already had successful experience of expansion of key corn markets, and Egypt is a bright example - if in 2010-11, the share of Ukrainian corn import to Egypt was about 15%, in 2011-12 MY, Ukraine provided 60% of corn import to Egypt," the analyst comments.

To remind, according to a new report of the International Monetary Fund "World Economic Perspectives," over recent two years, a stock-to-use ratio of grain and oil-bearing cultures in the Far East countries demonstrates considerable incapability for self-provision with those cultures. Thus, in the Far East countries, a corn stock-to-use ratio is 30% less against average indexes of 1980-2010.