October 23, 2009

The Canadian Wheat Board has lowered its price projections for durum and malting barley sold during the 2009-10 (August-July) crop year, according to the latest pool return outlooks released Thursday (October 22). Wheat values were left unchanged on the month.

International wheat values have strengthened over the past month on a US dollar basis, said the CWB. However, the Canadian dollar also strengthened, offsetting the price increases in Canadian dollars. As a result, the outlooks for wheat held steady from September. While global wheat production is expected to be down by 14 million tonnes in 2009-10 compared to the previous year, actual stocks should be up by 20 million tonnes, according to US Department of Agriculture data.

The CWB lowered its outlooks for durum by C$8 (US$7.64) per tonne, citing fundamental conditions that were the weakest in years. The world durum trade is expected to be down by 400,000 tonnes compared to the previous year. Canadian ending stocks are expected to increase, while US stocks should double, said the CWB. Higher import levies for durum moving into the European Union were disrupting trade, and creating some uncertainty in the durum market.

Malting barley prices were lowered by C$4 per tonne, due to large stocks, ample global production, and the strong Canadian dollar, according to the CWB. Increasing production estimates out of Australia were weighing on values, as the larger Australian crop would add to the already burdensome global market.

Feed barley outlooks were left unchanged on the month. Gains in global prices over the month were offset by the strong Canadian dollar, said the CWB.

The following are the Canadian Wheat Board's Pool Return Outlooks detailing estimated payments to farmers for grain delivered during the 2009-10 (August-July) crop year, in Canadian dollars per tonne, basis in store St. Lawrence/Vancouver.