October 21, 2015

Australia's 2015-16 wheat output to be lower than expectations: ABARES

Australia's wheat crops, which had been affected by recent dryness due to El Nino, will amount to 24 million tonnes for the 2015-16 season, a lower volume than past expectations, according to Jammie Penm, the chief commodity analyst for the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

In the beginning of September, ABARES expected a volume of 25.28 million tonnes of wheat until forecasts of lower rainfalls led the organisation to adjust that figure.

Penm described the late September to early and mid-October period as receiving "very below average" rainfall in key production areas.

"Our bureau of meteorology produced just a week ago an urgent revised outlook indicating that, for cropping regions to receive adequate rainfall (in October), the probability is about 20%," Penm said.

On the contrary, the USDA conveyed a more positive outlook for Australian wheat: the agency - optimistic that sub-soil moisture is adequate enough to aid crops in enduring a dry September - raised forecast for the crop by one million tonnes, to a volume of 27 million tonnes. 

ABARES' latest figure for Australia's wheat volume in 2015-16 is close to the country's 2014-15 output of 23.7 million tonnes.