October 20, 2023

Potential increase for Brazil's soybean production, corn to drop in 2023-2024 season

Brazil's soybean production will increase by nearly 5% while its corn production will fall by nearly 10% for the 2023-2024 season, according to CONAB.

CONAB pegged Brazil's soybean production at a record 5.9 million bushels with acreage up 2.5% to 112 million acres. Corn production is projected at 4.7 million bushels with acreage down 5% at 52 million acres.

Joana Colussi, a Brazilian native on the University of Illinois farmdoc team, told Brownfield that more favorable soybean prices and the transition to an El Nino weather pattern prompted some growers to shift their planting intentions.

"During an El Nino, Northern Brazil usually sink below normal rainfall, which can also bleed into portions of central Brazil, the main agricultural region," Colussi said. "The temperatures also are generally higher, increasing the risk for crops in the center West."

She added that growers in the region are concerned corn yields may suffer from El Nino conditions. Following three years of a La Nina pattern, El Nino conditions could be more beneficial for crops in southern Brazil and Argentina.

"The forecast is that Argentina will recover the losses that they had in the last season, so probably will have bigger soybean production in Argentina as well," Colussi noted.

- Brownfield