October 19, 2020

 

China's pork production up 18% year-on-year in third quarter

 

Based on Reuters calculations citing official data, China's pork production in the third quarter of this year increased 18% year-on-year to 8.4 million tonnes, showing signs that swine output is steadily recovering for the world's biggest swine producer, Reuters reported.

 

This was the first quarter since July-September of 2018 that pork output has a year-on-year increase.

 

After an African swine fever (ASF) outbreak affected China's swine farms in August 2018, breeding stock dropped by about 60% late last year and pork production fell to 42.6 million tonnes total in 2019, the lowest in 16 years.

 

Rabobank projected swine output to fall by another 20% in 2020.

 

However, China's National Bureau of Statistics said swine production between January to September 2020 has only fell 10.8% from 2019 to 28.38 million tonnes.

 

Pan Chenjun, senior analyst at Rabobank, said pork production is higher than expected, adding that a larger drop was projected given that pork prices remain high when compared to pre-ASF.

 

A big rise in swine production in the third quarter of this year was thanks to weak comparative quarter in 2019, when production dropped 42% on year to only 7 million tonnes.

 

Analysts questioned the data, which showed breeding sows are up 28% to 38.22 million heads, close to pre-ASF levels.

 

The data also showed slaughtered swine dropped 11.7% between January to September 2020 to 361.86 million.

 

Xiong Kuan, an analyst at Cofco Futures, said less than 24 million swine is expected to eb slaughtered in October, 8% up compared to September but less than the usual monthly needs of 45 million.

 

Production of beef and lamb has also dropped by 1.7% and 1.8% respectively January to September this year according to the data, but poultry production increased 6.5% because it is a cheaper pork substitute.

 

-      Reuters