October 17, 2007

US 2007/08 feed grains output set for an all-time high

Projections from the US Department of Agriculture show that US feed grain production for 2007/08 is seen at a record 357.0 million tonnes, up from 356.9 million in September. The month-to-month increase reflects additions in corn and sorghum production but posted declines in barley and oats production.

According to the USDA, planted area for the four grains was increased 543,000 acres and harvested for grains acres were increased 516,000 acres this month. Yields per harvested acre for the four grains combined were essentially unchanged at 3.65 tonnes per acre, compared with 3.67 tonnes last month. Beginning stocks were raised to 36.2 million tonnes. Total 2007/08 feed grain supply is forecast at a record 395.7 million tonnes, up from 337.1 million in 2006/07.

Overall 2007/08 feed grain utilisation is projected at a record 341.7 million tonnes, down from 345.2 million last month, but up from 300.9 million in 2006/07. The month-to-month decrease came from lower feed and residual use and ethanol use for corn and sorghum. Exports are expected to be higher this month for both corn and sorghum but not enough higher to offset the declines in domestic uses. Total feed grain ending stocks were raised 7.6 million tonnes to 54.1 million. On a September-August marketing year basis, feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus feed wheat in 2007/08 is projected to total 158.9 million tonnes, up from 154.1 in 2006/07. Corn is estimated to account for 91 percent of feed and residual use in 2007/08. The projected index of grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) in 2007/08 is up 0.2 million units to 92.0 million. Feed and residual per GCAU is estimated at 1.73 tonnes, up 3 percent from 2006/07.

The USDA has outlined below livestock production for 2008:

• Beef production is forecast at 26.2 billion pounds, up from 26.1 billion in 2007.
   
• Pork production is forecast at 22.3 billion pounds, up from 21.7 billion in 2007.
   
• Broiler production is forecast at 36.1 billion pounds, up from 35.3 billion in 2007.
   
• Egg production is forecast at 7.6 billion dozen, up from 7.5 billion dozen in 2007.
   
• Milk production is forecast at 190.2 billion pounds, up from 185.4 billion in 2007.