October 16, 2023
EU pork production dipped 8.6% in H1 2023
EU pork production went down by 8.6% in the first half of 2023.
Since July, EU producer prices started to show signs of a decline, according to the European Commission. As feed prices are decreasing and margins remain positive, carcass weights are expected to increase in the second half of the year.
Overall, a production decline of 6.6% is expected in 2023.
At the same time, EU demand stays firm but given reduced supply, a drop in EU per capita consumption is expected (5% to 30.4 kg), the Commission stated.
Besides reduced supply, consumer considerations about price increases play an important role, which leads to a reduction of pork consumption or a switch to other types of meat.
In particular, pork consumption is often reduced to the benefit of poultry meat. If supply rebounds slightly, a small increase in per capita consumption might happen in 2024 as a respond to this development.
Less competitive EU pork prices make exports to the global market a real challenge, the European Commission said.
In the first half of 2023, EU exports recorded a decline of 20%. Pork production in China is recovering and so less imports are needed.
At the same time, the European Union loses market shares both in high value markets (the United States, Japan and Australia) and low-value ones (for example, Philippines) due to stronger price competition.
Only the UK market shows a slight positive development ( up 2.4% in the January-June period).
Overall, EU exports in 2023 could be down by 16%. If prices continue declining, some market shares might be regained, resulting in a 5% increase in 2024, the Commission said.
EU pork imports from the United Kingdom decreased by almost 19% in the first half of 2023, following an increase of almost 28% in 2022.
- European Commission