October 16, 2003
UK's Forecast Reduced Livestock Production
Production has fallen considerably in recent years, according to the Meat and Livestock Commission (MLC). In 1998 total UK beef production was 697,000 tons with consumption rated at 888,000 tons. The gap was filled by imports. There were no exports in 1998 with the global ban on UK beef due to post-BSE situation still very much in force.
In 2001, the year of the foot-and-mouth catastrophe, production of beef slumped to 652,000 tons while imports rose to 261,000 tons. In 2002 the beef sector recovered remarkably with production back up to 692,000 tons, but imports increased to 313,000 tonnes.
In the current year, production is forecast to be virtually unchanged and imports are likely to be once again in the region of 300,000 plus tons. In 2004, MLC says there will be a downturn in production of beef to just 674,000 tons.
Since 1998, consumption of beef has risen by almost 100,000 tons, virtually all of which has been satisfied through imports. If there is no link between support and production in the CAP reform options chosen by the UK, then imports will continue to increase. Those imports will be relatively cheap, especially from South America, and that could well put pressure on producer returns here in the UK.
But the beef sector's output decline is as nothing compared to the pig industry. In 1998 UK pork production was rated at 920,000 tons with consumption at 843,000 tonnes. The UK exported 245,000 tonnes of pork, but imported 170,000 tons.
In 2000, pork production slumped to 727,000 tons with a further decline in 2001 to 607,000 tons. Meanwhile, imports rose by 110,000 tons to 260,000 tons while exports slumped to just 39,000 tons. The MLC prediction for pork production in 2003 is only 597,000 tons. Imports are 334,000 tons; this figure is almost double as compared to the amount in 1998. However, the forecast for 2004 is that imports and exports will remain close to current levels.
UK is forecasted to have a much reduced livestock industry in 2005 compared to just 5 years ago.
