October 15, 2003
China Importing Record Levels Of Soybeans
Chinese soybean imports hit a record high of 20.3 million tons in 2002-03, nearly double the 2001-02 level of 10.4 million tons. This figure is even more remarkable when compared to the 1997-98 level of 2.9 million tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Tuesday in its "Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade" report.
The significant increase in imports this year occurred despite actions by Chinese officials that have limited soybean imports in recent months. For the first time, Brazil's market share now rivals the U.S. share of China's soybean imports. Both the United States and Brazil are expected to post record years for exports to China in 2002/03 with U.S. exports at 7.7 million tons and Brazil at 7.4 million tons. The previous record of U.S. soybean exports to China was 5.4 million tons in 2000/01. USDA's current forecast for 2003/04 shows China importing 20.5 million tons of soybeans with the U.S. and Brazil expected to maintain similar shares of the market this year, the report said.
Situation and Outlook
Projected world oilseed production was increased by 1 million tons in October, to 346.8 million tons. Projected rapeseed and cottonseed production was increased by 1.5 and 0.4 million tons, respectively. Projected soybean production fell by 900,000 tons, as a 4 million ton increase in Brazil was more than offset by reductions of 4.7 million tons in the United States and 400,000 tons in China.
Soybean production in Uruguay is projected to almost double to 350,000 tons in 2003/04, an increase of 125,000 tons from last month, as Argentine farmers set up operations in Uruguay.
Favorable weather conditions drove the Indian production forecast up by 900,000 tons, and the Canadian and EU rapeseed production forecasts rose by 150,000 and 400,000 tons, respectively.
Projected cottonseed production increased by approximately 200,000 tons in both the U.S. and EU. An increase of 400,000 tons in projected Ukrainian sunflowerseed production was almost completely offset by declines in the EU, U.S., Canada and Uruguay.
Global soybean exports are projected to reach 66.4 million tons in 2003/04, up from 64.7 million tons last month, with Brazil accounting for almost all of the increase. Chinese soybean imports are projected to reach 20.5 million tons in 2003/04, an increase of 1.5 million from last month. China's 2002/03 soybean imports are now estimated at 20.3 million tons, an increase of 827,000 tons from last month on strong import data. Monthly Brazilian imports of soybeans have risen, leading to an increase of 400,000 tons in projected 2003/04 imports, the USDA said.
Global soybean ending stocks are forecast to decline to 36 million tons in 2003/04 from 37.3 million tons last year. Brazil's end of September stocks are projected to increase slightly in spite of the short U.S. crop.
The higher projected soybean crush in Brazil and China boosted soybean meal trade and soybean oil consumption. An increase in estimated 2002/03 South American soybean oil exports reduced South American soybean oil stocks to very low levels. Projected 2003/04 Chinese soybean oil imports rose by 150,000 tons to 1.3 million. EU palm oil imports were increased by 300,000 tons in both 2002/03 and 2003/04, while Indian palm oil imports were cut by 125,000 tons in 2003/04 due to increased rapeseed production.
