October 13, 2022


FranceAgriMer raises forecast for French wheat exports



The FranceAgriMer farm office, raised its forecast for French wheat exports outside the European Union by 15% up compared to last season, but said sales will hinge on whether a Ukrainian grain export corridor is extended, Reuters reported.


According to FranceAgriMer's cereal supply and demand outlook, soft wheat shipments outside the 27-member bloc are now anticipated to reach 10.1 million tonnes, up from 10.0 million in July.


France, the largest producer of wheat in the EU, saw a slight decline in production this year due to the drought, but benefited from strong demand over the summer as the conflict in Ukraine disrupted Black Sea exports.


However, because of the conflict in Ukraine, there is still some uncertainty for the remainder of the campaign, Paul Le Bideau of FranceAgriMer's grains unit told reporters.


In late November, a deal governing the corridor that permits Ukraine to transport grains out of the Black Sea will come to an end.


The office reduced its prediction for French soft wheat exports to the 27-member bloc this season from 7.13 million tonnes, which is now 12% below 2021–2022.


From the 2.36 million tonnes projected last month, it revised its projection for French soft wheat stocks by the end of the season in June to 2.13 million tonnes, primarily as a result of a revised harvest estimate released on Tuesday by the farm ministry.


In order to account for the impact that high gas prices are having on the energy-intensive industry, the forecasted use of wheat in starch was decreased by 55,000 tonnes to 2.7 million tonnes, now down 2% on the year.


FranceAgriMer estimated French ending stocks at 2.01 million tonnes in its first maize forecasts for 2022–2023, down from 2.23 million tonnes at the end of the previous season.


The sharp decline in supplies, which is expected to cause harvest supplies to drop by 30% this season and offset a 39% decline in exports to and from the EU, was linked to the fall.


The exceptionally hot and dry summer weather damaged crops, and this year's French maize harvest is anticipated to be the smallest in three decades.


Projected ending stocks for barley for 2022–2023 were raised once more and are now estimated to be 1.77 million tonnes, up from 1.66 million last month. This increase is largely attributable to an increased estimate of harvest supply and a further reduction in forecast shipments outside the EU.


-      Reuters

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