An eFeedLink Exclusive 
 
By An-ming LI and Ngai Meng CHAN

Data shows that since September swine prices have been on a downtrend, with prices falling below RMB32 per kilogram in many regions. This year's Golden Week did not stop the downtrend, clearly indicating a rebound in market hogs sold. Current prices in most northern regions are about RMB30 per kilogram, while those in southern regions are about RMB34. The steady decline in market demand coupled with the gradual increase in number of market hogs produced and sold should further depress prices, gradually easing the overall tight supply of live hogs. According to some reports, since 2019 when significant capital has been pouring into the swine market to expand production capacity, current operating capacity makes up only about 10% of the new capacity created.

On October 10 the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced that China's inventory of live swine and breeding sows had recovered to 80% of pre-ASF levels.

Prevention and control of swine diseases is a systematic endeavour. It is not an exaggeration to say that ASF has taught producers proper disease prevention; diseases common in the past are almost non-existent now.As day-to-night temperature variations can be large in October, the swine gut and respiratory tract are vulnerable to infection, and particular attention should be paid to open housingenvironments.

October still falls within the peak season for egg production, but with average demand traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Falling temperatures from the north to south of China mark the end of the peak production season, and it is expected that egg prices would start rising from November.

Broiler inventory remains at a high level in October, with supplies sufficient and end consumer demand being strong. But with declining pork prices nationwide, it is expected that the broiler market would be dragged downwards.

In terms of disease prevention and control, it could be said that swine farms are doing better than poultry farms. Many poultry farms are built to a very large scale, and are concentrated in a specific region - this is not helpful for disease prevention. In an era of antibiotic-free production, adequate biosecurity remains key to disease prevention.

On September 27, the General Office of the State Council issued opinions on promoting high-quality development of the livestock industry. Full self-sufficiency of poultry and eggs are targeted, while the target self-sufficiency rate of pork is 95%.