October 9, 2020

SHIC-funded study develops forecasts for PEDV outbreaks

Research funded by the Swine Health Information Center at North Carolina State University has developed accurate forecasts of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) spread within a decision-making timeframe, National Hog Farmer reported.

Results show predictability of the forecasting depends on the stage of disease spread within the region. By forecasting outbreaks before they happen, specific preventive and control strategies can be customised for farms.

Specifically, the study generated weekly high-resolution maps to track spread and identify current and future PEDV high-risk areas. The models were calibrated on true weekly PEDV outbreaks from three spatially-related swine companies within the study region. Within the outbreak models, the researchers then tested a combination of strategies that might reduce between-farm transmission which is critical to controlling outbreaks while minimising production disruptions.

The analysis estimates of the combined strategies of herd closure, feedback and reinforcement of on-farm biosecurity reduced disease incidence on sow farms by 14% and in gilt development units by 20%.

SHIC continues to focus efforts on prevention, preparedness and response to novel and emerging swine disease for the benefit of US swine health. SHIC is funded by US pork producers to fulfill its mission to protect and enhance the health of the US swine herd.