October 6, 2020

US researchers say climate change could make US south agricultural land useless

A research published in published in the Nature Communications journal showed climate change could make agricultural land largely useless in the US south by 2070, forcing US Midwest farmers to shift corn and soybean production due to lower crop yields, Reuters reported.

The research showed the profits for six key crops will drop by a third by 2070, but losses could be mitigated by shifting traditional crop growing areas in the US, which could change regional landscapes and livelihoods.

Naresh Devineni, co-author of the paper and associate professor in the civil engineering department at The City University of New York, said crop switching is not a solution, but rather the adoption of new seed varieties and farming practices to support farmers and meet future food demands.

The research analysed how the profitability of growing corn, soybeans, barley, cotton, rice, and wheat will be affected by climate change, specifically rising temperatures and extreme weather.

The research determined that projected losses may be mitigated if farmers acclimate to shifting conditions by changing crops or moving fields.

The paper, which modelled optimum growing areas for crops under changing climates, found that corn may become less concentrated in the Midwest, while soybean production is moved north of the country.

But even if farmers could adjust their crop plantings, its estimated that 5% of agriculture land will become useless for the six key crops by 2070, with southern states most affected.

James Rising, paper author and assistant professorial research fellow at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in Britain, said farmers are most exposed to climate change issues, so we need to recognize farmers' potential for adaption and policy-makers to decide long-term decisions.

-      Reuters