October 6, 2020

Pork export growth in EU to slow down due to African swine fever in Germany

The European Union Commission's recent short-term agricultural outlook report forecasts a slow down in pork exports from the EU due to trade restrictions imposed on Germany following an African swine fever (ASF) outbreak there, as well as Chinese demand contracts, Reuters reported.

The Commission's report said EU pork exports were only projected to increased by 2% over 2020, even after pork exports rose 15% between January and June this year including doubled volumes to China.

The Commission's previous outlook in July projected a 10% rise in in full-year pork exports.

The latest outlook said EU exports will depend on whether Germany can contain its ASF outbreak, adding that Denmark, Spain and the Netherlands could fill the gap left by Germany to supply China and other Asian pork markets.

The Commission projected a 10% drop in exports in 2021 citing to an expected reduction in Chinese demand as China boosts its domestic swine production.

The outlook said export growth would not have continued even if Germany was not affected by an ASF outbreak.

The Commission also forecast a 0.5% drop in pork output in the EU compared to its previous outlook of a 0.5% increase, while 2021 could see a 1% drop in pork production.

The Commission said any increased swine production in Q4 2020 will only come from Spain, Denmark and Ireland, which have expanded swine herds inclusive of breeding sows last year.

-      Reuters