October 3, 2024

US cow slaughter this year falls by 15% year-on-year from 2023 numbers

US cow slaughter in 2024 has fallen by over 650,000 to 3.76 million head year-to-date – a 15% decline from 2023, said Meat & Livestock Australia's (MLA) Global Supply analyst, Tim Jackson.

This is alongside a substantial reduction in bull slaughter, meaning that production of lean domestic beef in the United States has fallen by 12% from last year to 1.2 million tonnes (the smallest production volume since 2016).

The number of heifers entering feedlots has risen substantially at the same time, and overall carcase weights have risen substantially. This means that despite a 4% decline in overall slaughter, production has only fallen by 1% so far this year and is only forecast to fall 1% in 2024 overall, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The lift in heifer feedlot entries is effectively shrinking the future breeding herd, which will slow down the size of the future rebuild, Jackson noted. Although production remains higher than expected, the outlook for future production is expected to stay smaller for longer.

In 2025, beef production is forecast to fall another 4% from 2024 levels and exports are expected to fall 13%.

Australian exports to the US have already risen substantially over the past two years; year-to-August beef exports to the US have risen 69% from last year to 234,975 tonnes, making the US the largest export market for Australian beef.

- MLA