October 3, 2007

India's soy production may rise 24 percent

India's soy output in the current season is likely to increase by 24 percent to 88.65 lakh tonnes compared with 71.496 lakh tonnes in the same season last year. The bumper crop is partly attributed to 13 percent rise in soy acreage to 87.114 lakh hectares. 

Favourable monsoon and timely rains will likely to improve the yield this year by 10 percent to 1018 kilograms a hectare compared with 927 kilograms a hectare in the last kharif season. 

In its latest survey, the Soy Processors' Association (SOPA) in Madhya Pradesh found satisfactory crop conditions in the state during the vegetative to reproductive phase in the areas which received good rains in June and July.

The survey says that good rains by the end of August and September may further boost crop prospects. 

In Maharashtra, the crop condition was normal in the vegetative phase with fewer pest attacks and occasional rains giving boost to the crop. In Rajasthan, however, moisture stress in the pre-and post-flowering stages affected the plant growth to some extent. 

According to a latest research report by Kotak Commodity Service, China's soy output this year is expected to fall due to drought conditions there. The country's soy imports rose 1.7 per cent to 19.8 million tonnes during the first eight months of 2007. US exporters sold 120,000 tonnes of soy to China during the period. 

Dry weather conditions in the southern hemisphere, where soy cultivators such as Brazil and Argentina are located, would provide an upside risk to the prices, but any change in the weather could cap the rally.