October 1, 2020

 

China's swine herd improving but pork production needs time to recover

 

Experts and analysts said China's swine herd is recovering quickly following the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak, but pork production will take more time to recover because of the new herd's low quality, Reuters reported.

 

China's pork production plunged with pork hitting record high prices following an ASF outbreak throughout the country, with close to 60% of China's breeding sow gone by the second half of 2019.

 

However, the government called for increased pork production in September last year, with producers investing billions on CNY into new farms.

 

China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said the country's swine herd increased for the first time in two years in July 2020 and was up 31% in August compared to the same month in 2019.

 

But the increased production hides a less productive swine herd. The shortage of swine had led new farms to use females that would have been slaughtered for meat as breeders, resulting in smaller litters from these "three-way cross" females due to their different genetics.

 

Stephen Wilson, chief executive of leading livestock genetics firm Genus plc said these now make up half of China's breeding herd.

 

Pan Chenjun, senior analyst at Rabobank said while sow herds increased 37% year-on-year in August, the higher number of sow come from a low base.

 

Pan said if half of the three-way cross females are removed from the report, there isn't much high quality sow left.

 

Fu Yan, professor of genetics at Zhejiang University said three-way cross sow usually produce two swine fewer per litter or five fewer annually based on around 2.4 litters over 12 months, but can fluctuate depending on how they are raised.

 

Fu said three-way cross swine don't have as much fat as regular sows as they were bred for meat, so it can be an issue if the sow needs to draw on its fat reserves for producing milk.

 

Many pork producers in China are importing pure line breeding stock this year, with an aim to produce more sows from 2021.

 

But sow stocks are tight, with regular sow prices as high as CNY 5,000 (~US$734; CNY 1 = US$0.15) compared to CNY 1,800 (~US$265) before ASF.

 

Fu said there is still a demand for three-way cross sow, with these being sold at a CNY 500 (~US$74) premium compared to other market swine.

 

Pan said pork prices are falling as more heavy swine are being slaughtered ahead of the upcoming National Day holiday.

 

But extra meat on heavier swine cannot make up for low breeding herd productivity. Wilson said efficiency becomes a secondary consideration when farmers make US$400 per swine, but all these slaughter females must to be replaced.

 

Fu said China requires two to three more years to return pork production to optimum numbers, even at the normal rate of replacing half of its breeding herds annually.

 

Pan said her forecasts are revised because of the rapid expansion of new swine farms, but she added that pork production needs a further three years before it is enough for the market.

 

-      Reuters