October 1, 2007

USDA Report: Hog data seen bearish for futures

Analysts and floor traders viewed the federal government's quarterly hog results bearish for hog futures this week despite board weakness prior to the data released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The figure for all hogs and pigs as of September 1 was put at 103.0 percent compared with analysts' average forecast of 102.1 percent and a range from 101.4 percent to 102.8 percent.

USDA pegged kept for breeding at 101.0 percent compared with the average of analysts' prediction of 100.8 percent and their projected range of 100.0 percent to 101.5 percent.

And the federal government put hogs kept for marketing at 103.0 percent compared with the average estimate at 102.3 percent, ranging from 101.4 percent to 103.0 percent.

Market watchers and traders on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Friday (September 28) agreed that the data was overwhelmingly bearish in spite of futures' pullback ahead of the report.

Point-call estimates offered soon after the survey's release ranged from 50 to 100 points lower for October through February. However, an analyst said, the survey's negative impact may be less damaging for distant trading months.