October 1, 2004
IGC Ups 2004-05 World Wheat Output By 1 Million MT To 615 Million MT
Following is the updated world grain supply and demand forecast from the International Grains Council in its September monthly market review, released Thursday.
All figures are in millions of metric tons.
FOR 2004-05:
Sep Change from Change
estimate Aug estimate from 03-04
Wheat output 615 1 11.01%
Wheat trade 101 Unch -0.98%
Wheat use 606 1 2.89%
Wheat stocks 138 -1 6.98%
Major exporters -a 50 1 25.00%
Coarse grain output 963 1 5.82%
Coarse grain trade 103 Unch -1.90%
Coarse grain use 958 1 1.91%
Coarse grain stocks 141 1 3.68%
Major exporters -a 63 3 23.53%
FOR 2003-04
Sep Change from Change
estimate Aug estimate from 02-03
Wheat output 554 Unch -2.12%
Wheat trade 102 Unch -2.86%
Wheat use 589 1 -1.67%
Wheat stocks 129 -1 -21.34%
Major exporters -a 40 -1 2.56%
Coarse grain output 910 Unch 3.17%
Coarse grain trade 105 Unch Unch%
Coarse grain use 940 Unch 3.75%
Coarse grain stocks 136 1 -17.58%
Major exporters -a 50 Unch -12.28%
FOR 2002-03
Sep Change from Change
estimate Aug estimate from 01-02
Wheat output 566 -1 -2.75%
Wheat trade 105 1 -1.87%
Wheat use 599 -1 2.22%
Wheat stocks 164 1 -16.75%
Major exporters -a 39 1 -20.41%
Coarse grain output 882 -1 -2.22%
Coarse grain trade 105 Unch -0.94%
Coarse grain use 906 -2 -0.44%
Coarse grain stocks 164 Unch -12.77%
Major exporters -a 57 Unch -20.83%
a = Stocks held by major exporters (the European Union, the U.S., Australia, Canada and Argentina).
The IGC slightly upped its estimate for 2004-05 world wheat output to a record 615 million tons for its September report, mainly due to the good harvest results in Europe, where yields have been exceeding "all expectations," the report said.
On the other hand, estimates for Australia and Canada were reduced, offsetting some of the production boost in Europe. Uncertainty remains about the final outcome of the unusually late spring wheat harvest in North America, with the main focus on quality, the report said.
"A substantial proportion of the Canadian crop could be downgraded to feed due to an unusually cold and wet summer," it said.
Larger surpluses of lower grade wheat are expected to find outlets in Asian, European and other markets, but there may be stronger than previously anticipated competition from corn.
However, the resulting rise in inventories is expected to be more than offset by another reduction in wheat stocks held by China, the report said.
For world coarse grain the IGC maintains its record output of 963 million tons for its September report, which has been boosted by the largest ever U.S. harvest and a recovery in the European Union.
"Despite a late start to the U.S. harvest and some recent cold weather concerns, yield estimates for the U.S. crop climbed further in September, now placed at 278 million tons," the report said.
However, global corn consumption is expected to "more than match the 2004 outturn," it said.