October 1, 2004



IGC Ups 2004-05 World Wheat Output By 1 Million MT To 615 Million MT

Following is the updated world grain supply and demand forecast from the International Grains Council in its September monthly market review, released Thursday.
All figures are in millions of metric tons.
FOR 2004-05:
                         Sep     Change from     Change
                       estimate  Aug estimate  from 03-04
Wheat output          615           1         11.01%
Wheat trade           101        Unch         -0.98%
Wheat use             606           1          2.89%
Wheat stocks          138          -1          6.98%
  Major exporters -a   50           1         25.00%
Coarse grain output   963           1          5.82%
Coarse grain trade    103        Unch         -1.90%
Coarse grain use      958           1          1.91%
Coarse grain stocks   141           1          3.68%
  Major exporters -a   63           3         23.53%
FOR 2003-04
                         Sep     Change from     Change
                       estimate  Aug estimate  from 02-03
Wheat output          554        Unch         -2.12%
Wheat trade           102        Unch         -2.86%
Wheat use             589           1         -1.67%
Wheat stocks          129          -1        -21.34%
  Major exporters -a   40          -1          2.56%
Coarse grain output   910        Unch          3.17%
Coarse grain trade    105        Unch          Unch%
Coarse grain use      940        Unch          3.75%
Coarse grain stocks   136           1        -17.58%
  Major exporters -a   50        Unch        -12.28%
FOR 2002-03
                        Sep     Change from     Change
                      estimate  Aug estimate  from 01-02
Wheat output          566          -1         -2.75%
Wheat trade           105           1         -1.87%
Wheat use             599          -1          2.22%
Wheat stocks          164           1        -16.75%
  Major exporters -a   39           1        -20.41%
Coarse grain output   882          -1         -2.22%
Coarse grain trade    105        Unch         -0.94%
Coarse grain use      906          -2         -0.44%
Coarse grain stocks   164        Unch        -12.77%
  Major exporters -a   57        Unch        -20.83%
a = Stocks held by major exporters (the European Union, the U.S., Australia, Canada and Argentina).
The IGC slightly upped its estimate for 2004-05 world wheat output to a record 615 million tons for its September report, mainly due to the good harvest results in Europe, where yields have been exceeding "all expectations," the report said.
On the other hand, estimates for Australia and Canada were reduced, offsetting some of the production boost in Europe. Uncertainty remains about the final outcome of the unusually late spring wheat harvest in North America, with the main focus on quality, the report said.
"A substantial proportion of the Canadian crop could be downgraded to feed due to an unusually cold and wet summer," it said.
Larger surpluses of lower grade wheat are expected to find outlets in Asian, European and other markets, but there may be stronger than previously anticipated competition from corn.
However, the resulting rise in inventories is expected to be more than offset by another reduction in wheat stocks held by China, the report said.
For world coarse grain the IGC maintains its record output of 963 million tons for its September report, which has been boosted by the largest ever U.S. harvest and a recovery in the European Union.
"Despite a late start to the U.S. harvest and some recent cold weather concerns, yield estimates for the U.S. crop climbed further in September, now placed at 278 million tons," the report said.
However, global corn consumption is expected to "more than match the 2004 outturn," it said.