In the first seven months of this year, slaughter numbers were 2.9% higher at federally inspected abattoirs and the USDA is predicting that 47 million head of cattle will be processed overall this year.

 

The USDA expects that in the second half of this year, producers will begin holding more cows for breeding. The effect will be a drop in the factory kill of cattle which is predicted to fall from 47 million heads this year to 45 million next year. This would mean a USDA estimated drop in meat production of 3% to 11.5 million tonnes carcass weight equivalent (CWE).

 

This decline in production is forecast to lead to an 8% decrease in Brazil's beef export volume next year, falling from an expected 3.85 million tonnes CWE this year to 3.55 million tonnes next year. The context of this decline should also be noted: Brazil's beef exports have been growing sharply year on year and in the first seven months of 2025 alone, they have increased by 14%, driven by strong international demand and increased cow culling. Brazil will continue to be the world's largest beef exporter in 2026, selling more than twice as much as Australia, the world's second largest beef exporter. Also, it should be noted that Brazil's beef exports never passed three million tonnes CWE before 2024 and it was as recent when they reached two million tonnes CWE for the first time.

 

If the USDA forecasts prove correct, then the drop in Brazilian beef production and exports will be a halting of the upward surge. However, with extra livestock being retained for breeding purposes, it means that in subsequent years, the volume of beef produced and exported are expected to resume its upward trend.

 

The cattle industry in the US has fallen a year on year since 2019 and in fact, it reached the lowest point in over seventy years  in January when the total US cattle production fell to 86.7 million heads. A prolonged period of difficult weather conditions, which ranged from floods to drought, has been blamed for this decline. However, this may be about to change.

 

In recent days, US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins declared her intention to tackle the issue. She said: "USDA will soon release a significant plan to help rebuild the American cattle supply, incentivising our great ranchers and driving full-scale revitalisation of the American beef industry. This is only the beginning, with many more announcements coming this week as USDA restores American strength, protects food security and supports America's ranchers and farmers."

 

The US government is also expected to dedicate considerable resources to rebuild the American cattle herd.