September 23, 2010


US census sees August soy crush at 127 million bushels


The US Census Bureau is expected to estimate the August soy crush at 127 million bushels, a modest decline from the prior month, owing to a seasonal slowdown in operations and a lack of available supplies.


The Census Bureau's crush report is scheduled for release Thursday (Sept 23) at 8 a.m. EDT, (1200 GMT).


The US Census Bureau reports its monthly soy crush in millions of bushels; US soyoil stocks are reported in billions of pounds; and US soymeal stocks are reported in thousands of short tonnes.


Providing the market with an indication of potential changes that could be made in the Census report was the National Oilseed Processors Association crush report.


In its September 14 report, NOPA said the August crush was 122.4 million bushels, down 1.8 million bushels from July. The NOPA report includes figures only from member processors.


There was a seasonal decline in the crush, with the tightness of old-crop soy supplies exacerbating the slowdown, industry analysts said.


Supplies of soy from the last harvest dwindled because of strong demand and a lack of selling by farmers. Harvest of the next soy crop, or the "new crop," will pick up speed this month and likely finish next month.


August soymeal stocks are seen declining to 373,400 short tonnes, down from the 423,100 tonnes reported for July.


The decrease in US soymeal stocks was attributed to a lower crush pace, but a slow down in the export programme limited supply off take, industry participants said.


Soyoil stocks are seen declining to 3.31 billion pounds in the report, down from 3.55 billion the previous month. In the NOPA report, soyoil stocks saw a 207.9 million-pound decrease in stocks.


Soyoil stocks should decline from last month because exports have been strong, said Anne Frick, senior oilseed analyst for Prudential Bache. Reduced crushings also indicate soyoil stocks will drop.

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