September 21, 2021

Canada's swine herd to shrink by 2% next year

Canada's swine herd is forecast to decline by 2% in 2022 following slight growth in 2021 fueled by COVID-19-related processing backlogs, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

An increase in sow numbers will see the 2022 pig numbers grow more than in 2021, as Canada adds additional finishing capacity and sees greater slaughter capacity utilisation and additional investments.

Slaughter will increase modestly by 50,000 in 2022 as a result. Live exports will decline 8% in 2022 (after 13% growth in 2021) as Canada recently resolved the labour dispute in Eastern Canada, which saw over four months of processing capacity disruptions, resulting in a greater number of market and feeder hogs heading to US facilities.

Despite increased slaughter, 2022 pork production is forecast to decline 2% as resolved COVID-19 disruptions and labor disputes will reduce numbers of backlogged hogs.

Carcass weights will be lower in 2022 as a result unless further disruption occurs. Domestic consumption will remain stagnant in 2022 on a modest 1% gain in 2021.

Canadian pork exports are to remain stable in 2022 following a 1% growth in 2021 with continued global demand due to ongoing impacts of African swine fever in several regions.

Pork imports are expected to grow 4% in 2022 following a 5% decline in 2021 due to lower production and Canadian consumers' preference for certain cuts. The United States will remain the main source market for imports.

- USDA