September 21, 2004
World 2004-05 Wheat Output At 613.2 Million MT, Up 9.7% On Year
Global 2004-05 wheat output is forecast at 613.2 million metric tons, up 9.7% or 53.1 million tons on the year, the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization said Monday.
This upward revision is due to a large European crop harvest, the FAO said in its September Food Outlook report.
With regard to coarse grain output in 2004-05, the FAO pegged production at 965.5 million tons, up 3.3% on the year, slightly higher than FAO's April forecast due to a record crop in the U.S.
"The bulk of the improvement compared to the June situation is accounted for by the major exporting countries whose share of total cereal stocks is now forecast to increase significantly from the previous year," the FAO said.
World total wheat stocks are seen at 160.0 million tons, nearly unchanged on the year from 159.7 million tons during 2003-04, FAO said.
As for rice, the FAO forecasts 2004-05 production at 607.9 million tons of paddy rice, 23.6 million tons more than in 2003. But the figure is five million tons less than the June estimate due to deterioration in result in major producing countries including Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Malaysia and the Philippines.
Total global cereal output for 2004-05 is put at 1,985 million tons, up 101 million tons or nearly 5.1% on the year, the FAO said.
The following are tables of world cereal supply and demand for the 2004-05 marketing year and production for 2004 harvests.
(Table of FAO production, supply, use, trade and stock forecasts and
estimates in million metric tons)
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Production(1) 1,907 1,834 1,884 1,985
Wheat 588 570 560 613
Coarse Grains 918 882 934 966
Rice (milled) 400 382 390 406
Supply(2) 2,505 2,406 2,363 2,392
Consumption 1,930 1,932 1,957 1,984
Trade(3) 241 243 234 228
Ending Stocks(4) 570 478 407 402
Notes:
(1) Data refers to calendar year of first year shown. Rice in milled equivalent.
(2) Production plus opening stocks
(3) July/June basis for wheat, coarse grains, and calendar year (second year shown) for rice.
(4) May not equal difference between supply and consumption due to differences in individual country marketing years.