September 19, 2005
ASA Weekly: US 2005-06 soybean production projection; Asian rust a concern in Argentina
US 2005-06 soybean production projection
US 2005-06 oilseed production is projected at 89.5 million tonnes, with oilseed ending stocks for 2005-06 projected to be 7.1 million tonnes, according to USDA.
US soybean production for 2005-06 is now seen as reaching 77.7 million tonnes, based on USDA's September estimate of yield prospects. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 5.58 million tonnes for 2005-06, USDA said.
Global oilseed production for 2005-06 is projected at 379.3 million tonnes, down 0.7 million tonnes from 2004-05, said USDA. Global oilseed stocks for 2005-06 will likely be decreased from last year as lower beginning stocks and increased crush more than offset larger oilseed production, according to USDA.
Asian rust a concern in Argentina
The pathogen associated with Asian rust has been found recently on a number of farms across Argentina and could spell trouble for the 2005-06 soybean crop.
"We're finding the pathogen in a number places around the country," said Daniel Ploper, a plant pathologist and director of an experimental research station in Tucuman Province.
"There are a lot of volunteer soybeans [beans that grow accidentally between seasons] now, which indicates there was a serious problem with the previous harvest," Ploper said. "But what is different from in the past is that we are finding Asian rust pathogens now, even before the planting season has started."
Senasa, Argentina's animal- and food-health agency, reported last week that Asian rust has already been found in the provinces of Buenos Aires, Chaco, Corrientes, Misiones, Salta and Santa Fe.
Senate begins to debate agriculture appropriations bill
The Senate is scheduled to begin debate this week on the agriculture appropriations bill covering fiscal 2006.
Fiscal conservatives worry that the legislation (HR 2744) will be amended to load it down with billions in emergency spending, not only for victims of Hurricane Katrina, but also for any farmer or rancher who suffered a weather-related loss this year.
"The states affected by Hurricane Katrina are all major beneficiaries of these programs," Senator Robert Bennett, chairman of the Agriculture and Rural Development Appropriations Subcommittee.
The House passed its US$100.3 billion version of the bill in early June. The Senate Appropriations Committee approved the Senate version on Jun 23.
Discretionary spending in the Senate bill is nearly a half-billion dollars more than in the House bill, with the additional Senate funding gong to research, the Farm Service Agency, rural development, emergency overseas food aid under the Food for Peace program and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
Court rules Paranagua port can ban shipments of GM soybeans
A Brazilian state court overturned an injunction obliging the port of Paranagua to ship GM soybeans and the port will now reinstate the ban, port spokeswoman said Sep 16.
Parana State Court Judge Tadeu Loyola Costa accepted the port's argument that it had no way of segregating GMO and non-GMO produce, which is demanded under federal law.
The sale of GMOs has been legal in Brazil for the last two years. In the coming 2005-06 season, around 25 percent of the crop is expected to be GMO.
The two-year ban on GMOs from the port caused many exporters to divert shipments to other ports, stretching operations there and raising costs.
Planted area in Brazil decreases 4 percent
The Brazilian area planted to soybeans in the 2005-06 seasons has fallen 4 percent year-on-year to 22 million hectares, according to a report from USDA.
Soybean production is expected to be up 18 percent on last year's poor harvest and should reach 60 million tonnes, the report said.
Yields are expected to be around 2.73 tonnes/hectare, in line with the 25-year average. USDA attributed the drop in the planted area to current low commodity prices, a strong currency, a high rate of unpaid debts, tight credit and high input costs.
Soybean prices are also unlikely to be particularly favourable in 2005-06 as a much larger crop than last year is now expected in the Northern Hemisphere, meaning an ample supply. Soybean rust is also proving to be an issue in Brazil, as farmers have to spend up to US$40/hectare on spraying their fields with fungicide to treat the disease, USDA said.
Credit from input suppliers is also expected to be either limited or unavailable due to the number of farmers who could not make repayments in the 2004-05 season because of the disastrous crop, according to USDA.
|
US & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | |||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
4,853 |
3,059 |
7,886 |
1,630 |
2,046 |
4,341 |
3,129 |
2,086 |
1,058 |
|
Production |
66,778 |
85,484 |
78,653 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
39,000 |
50,500 |
51,000 |
62,000 |
|
Imports |
151 |
136 |
82 |
540 |
590 |
485 |
350 |
470 |
200 |
|
Crush |
41,631 |
45,994 |
45,994 |
25,072 |
26,800 |
27,500 |
29,172 |
29,634 |
32,309 |
|
Exports |
23,946 |
30,209 |
30,890 |
6,500 |
8,700 |
9,400 |
19,571 |
19,542 |
22,936 |
|
Other |
3,146 |
4,590 |
4,031 |
1,552 |
1,795 |
2,010 |
3,150 |
3,322 |
3,575 |
|
Usage |
68,723 |
80,793 |
80,915 |
33,124 |
37,295 |
38,910 |
51,893 |
52,498 |
58,820 |
|
Carryout |
3,059 |
7,886 |
5,706 |
2,046 |
4,341 |
4,916 |
2,086 |
1,058 |
4,438 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
200 |
191 |
227 |
347 |
354 |
529 |
763 |
469 |
425 |
|
Production |
32,953 |
36,536 |
36,501 |
19,807 |
21,172 |
21,725 |
22,920 |
23,730 |
25,459 |
|
Domestic use |
28,590 |
30,118 |
30,527 |
700 |
850 |
950 |
8,784 |
9,400 |
9,900 |
|
Net Exports |
4,372 |
6,382 |
5,974 |
19,100 |
20,147 |
20,914 |
14,430 |
14,374 |
15,434 |
|
Usage |
32,962 |
36,500 |
36,501 |
19,800 |
20,997 |
21,864 |
23,214 |
23,774 |
25,334 |
|
Carryout |
191 |
227 |
227 |
354 |
529 |
390 |
469 |
425 |
550 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
676 |
488 |
769 |
99 |
74 |
100 |
150 |
93 |
90 |
|
Production |
7,748 |
8,716 |
8,648 |
4,513 |
4,824 |
4,950 |
5,258 |
5,448 |
5,816 |
|
Domestic use |
7,651 |
7,847 |
8,006 |
140 |
145 |
155 |
2,710 |
2,785 |
2,920 |
|
Net exports |
285 |
588 |
585 |
4,398 |
4,653 |
4,820 |
2,605 |
2,666 |
2,896 |
|
Usage |
7,936 |
8,435 |
8,591 |
4,538 |
4,798 |
4,975 |
5,315 |
5,451 |
5,816 |
|
Carryout |
488 |
769 |
826 |
74 |
100 |
75 |
93 |
90 |
90 |
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 08 September 2005
|
New |
Accum. |
New |
Accum. | |||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
32.7 |
2.7 |
|
Indonesia |
Soymeal |
3.2 |
87.2 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
115 |
0 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
1 |
368.4 |
|
Costa Rica |
Soybeans |
13 |
9 |
|
LW WWI |
Soymeal |
0.2 |
0.6 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
26.3 |
84.2 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
46.1 |
1091 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
24.3 |
1.4 |
|
Philippines |
Soymeal |
1.6 |
469.3 |
|
Korea, Rep. |
Soybeans |
55 |
0 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
2.1 |
29.3 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
110.3 |
32.5 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
1.8 |
165.4 |
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
66.6 |
0.8 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Turkey |
Soybeans |
40 |
0 |
|
Outstanding |
Accum. |
New | |
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
4 |
942.8 |
|
Commodity |
Sales |
Exports |
Sales |
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
4.4 |
205.2 |
|
Soybeans |
4,421.70 |
154.5 |
595.4 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
1 |
244.6 |
|
Soymeal |
443.9 |
5,690.10 |
59.9 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
2.4 |
12.9 |
|
Soyoil |
35.8 |
410.4 |
4.2 |
Note: New marketing year for soybeans began September 1, 2005
