September 19, 2005

 

ASA Weekly: US 2005-06 soybean production projection; Asian rust a concern in Argentina
 

 

US 2005-06 soybean production projection

 

US 2005-06 oilseed production is projected at 89.5 million tonnes, with oilseed ending stocks for 2005-06 projected to be 7.1 million tonnes, according to USDA.

 

US soybean production for 2005-06 is now seen as reaching 77.7 million tonnes, based on USDA's September estimate of yield prospects. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 5.58 million tonnes for 2005-06, USDA said.

 

Global oilseed production for 2005-06 is projected at 379.3 million tonnes, down 0.7 million tonnes from 2004-05, said USDA. Global oilseed stocks for 2005-06 will likely be decreased from last year as lower beginning stocks and increased crush more than offset larger oilseed production, according to USDA.

 

Asian rust a concern in Argentina

 

The pathogen associated with Asian rust has been found recently on a number of farms across Argentina and could spell trouble for the 2005-06 soybean crop.

 

"We're finding the pathogen in a number places around the country," said Daniel Ploper, a plant pathologist and director of an experimental research station in Tucuman Province.

 

"There are a lot of volunteer soybeans [beans that grow accidentally between seasons] now, which indicates there was a serious problem with the previous harvest," Ploper said. "But what is different from in the past is that we are finding Asian rust pathogens now, even before the planting season has started."

 

Senasa, Argentina's animal- and food-health agency, reported last week that Asian rust has already been found in the provinces of Buenos Aires, Chaco, Corrientes, Misiones, Salta and Santa Fe.

 

Senate begins to debate agriculture appropriations bill

 

The Senate is scheduled to begin debate this week on the agriculture appropriations bill covering fiscal 2006.

 

Fiscal conservatives worry that the legislation (HR 2744) will be amended to load it down with billions in emergency spending, not only for victims of Hurricane Katrina, but also for any farmer or rancher who suffered a weather-related loss this year.

 

"The states affected by Hurricane Katrina are all major beneficiaries of these programs," Senator Robert Bennett, chairman of the Agriculture and Rural Development Appropriations Subcommittee.

 

The House passed its US$100.3 billion version of the bill in early June. The Senate Appropriations Committee approved the Senate version on Jun 23.

 

Discretionary spending in the Senate bill is nearly a half-billion dollars more than in the House bill, with the additional Senate funding gong to research, the Farm Service Agency, rural development, emergency overseas food aid under the Food for Peace program and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

 

Court rules Paranagua port can ban shipments of GM soybeans

 

A Brazilian state court overturned an injunction obliging the port of Paranagua to ship GM soybeans and the port will now reinstate the ban, port spokeswoman said Sep 16.

 

Parana State Court Judge Tadeu Loyola Costa accepted the port's argument that it had no way of segregating GMO and non-GMO produce, which is demanded under federal law.

 

The sale of GMOs has been legal in Brazil for the last two years. In the coming 2005-06 season, around 25 percent of the crop is expected to be GMO.

 

The two-year ban on GMOs from the port caused many exporters to divert shipments to other ports, stretching operations there and raising costs.

 

Planted area in Brazil decreases 4 percent

 

The Brazilian area planted to soybeans in the 2005-06 seasons has fallen 4 percent year-on-year to 22 million hectares, according to a report from USDA.

 

Soybean production is expected to be up 18 percent on last year's poor harvest and should reach 60 million tonnes, the report said.

 

Yields are expected to be around 2.73 tonnes/hectare, in line with the 25-year average. USDA attributed the drop in the planted area to current low commodity prices, a strong currency, a high rate of unpaid debts, tight credit and high input costs.

 

Soybean prices are also unlikely to be particularly favourable in 2005-06 as a much larger crop than last year is now expected in the Northern Hemisphere, meaning an ample supply. Soybean rust is also proving to be an issue in Brazil, as farmers have to spend up to US$40/hectare on spraying their fields with fungicide to treat the disease, USDA said.

 

Credit from input suppliers is also expected to be either limited or unavailable due to the number of farmers who could not make repayments in the 2004-05 season because of the disastrous crop, according to USDA.


 

US & South America Soybean/Products Balance

United States

Argentina

Brazil

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

Actual

Estimate

Proj.

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

Soybeans

thousand tonnes

Carryin

4,853

3,059

7,886

1,630

2,046

4,341

3,129

2,086

1,058

Production

66,778

85,484

78,653

33,000

39,000

39,000

50,500

51,000

62,000

Imports

151

136

82

540

590

485

350

470

200

Crush

41,631

45,994

45,994

25,072

26,800

27,500

29,172

29,634

32,309

Exports

23,946

30,209

30,890

6,500

8,700

9,400

19,571

19,542

22,936

Other

3,146

4,590

4,031

1,552

1,795

2,010

3,150

3,322

3,575

Usage

68,723

80,793

80,915

33,124

37,295

38,910

51,893

52,498

58,820

Carryout

3,059

7,886

5,706

2,046

4,341

4,916

2,086

1,058

4,438

Soymeal

thousand tonnes

Carryin

200

191

227

347

354

529

763

469

425

Production

32,953

36,536

36,501

19,807

21,172

21,725

22,920

23,730

25,459

Domestic use

28,590

30,118

30,527

700

850

950

8,784

9,400

9,900

Net Exports

4,372

6,382

5,974

19,100

20,147

20,914

14,430

14,374

15,434

Usage

32,962

36,500

36,501

19,800

20,997

21,864

23,214

23,774

25,334

Carryout

191

227

227

354

529

390

469

425

550

Soybean oil

thousand tonnes

Carryin

676

488

769

99

74

100

150

93

90

Production

7,748

8,716

8,648

4,513

4,824

4,950

5,258

5,448

5,816

Domestic use

7,651

7,847

8,006

140

145

155

2,710

2,785

2,920

Net exports

285

588

585

4,398

4,653

4,820

2,605

2,666

2,896

Usage

7,936

8,435

8,591

4,538

4,798

4,975

5,315

5,451

5,816

Carryout

488

769

826

74

100

75

93

90

90

 

USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 08 September 2005

New

Accum.

New

Accum.

Country

Commodity

Sales

Exports

 

Country

Commodity

Sales

Exports

Canada

Soybeans

32.7

2.7

 

Indonesia

Soymeal

3.2

87.2

China

Soybeans

115

0

 

Japan

Soymeal

1

368.4

Costa Rica

Soybeans

13

9

 

LW WWI

Soymeal

0.2

0.6

Indonesia

Soybeans

26.3

84.2

 

Mexico

Soymeal

46.1

1091

Japan

Soybeans

24.3

1.4

 

Philippines

Soymeal

1.6

469.3

Korea, Rep.

Soybeans

55

0

 

Canada

Soyoil

2.1

29.3

Mexico

Soybeans

110.3

32.5

 

Mexico

Soyoil

1.8

165.4

Taiwan

Soybeans

66.6

0.8

 

Export Sales Totals (tmt)

Turkey

Soybeans

40

0

 

Outstanding

Accum.

New

Canada

Soymeal

4

942.8

 

Commodity

Sales

Exports

Sales

Colombia

Soymeal

4.4

205.2

 

Soybeans

4,421.70

154.5

595.4

Guatemala

Soymeal

1

244.6

 

Soymeal

443.9

5,690.10

59.9

Hong Kong

Soymeal

2.4

12.9

 

Soyoil

35.8

410.4

4.2

              Note: New marketing year for soybeans began September 1, 2005

 

 

 

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