September 17, 2024

 

USDA increases Philippines corn import forecast amid production challenges

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its forecast for corn imports to the Philippines, raising the projection for 2024 to 1.3 million metric tonnes (MMT), an increase from the previous estimate of 1.1 MMT, as the country faces the impacts of El Nino and the ongoing issue of fall armyworm infestations, Business Mirror reported.

 

In its latest report, the USDA noted that global imports are expected to rise for several countries, including China, India, Mexico, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Venezuela.

 

For 2025, the USDA predicts that the Philippines will further increase its corn imports to 1.35 MMT due to lower carryover stocks. However, on a global scale, the USDA expects imports to decline next year, with lower forecasts for Canada, China, and Iran outweighing increases in the European Union, India, Mexico, and the Philippines.

 

The USDA also raised its forecast for wheat imports to the Philippines in 2025, expecting imports to reach 7 MMT. This increase is driven by stronger demand for both milling and feed-quality wheat.

 

The USDA report also highlighted the rise in global consumption of feed and residual use, citing increased demand from the Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, Canada, and the UK, which offsets the decline in feed use in the European Union.

 

Meanwhile, the USDA-Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila (USDA-FAS Manila) warned that local corn production in the Philippines may decline in the marketing year (MY) 2024-2025 due to fall armyworm infestations affecting farms.

 

The USDA-FAS Manila report projected a 2.38 percent drop in corn production to 8.2 MMT, down from 8.4 MMT in the previous marketing year.

 

In June, corn fields in the Caraga region had been devastated by fall armyworms. The infestation was linked to temperature changes, according to a crop protection specialist.

 

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) revealed that corn production in the second quarter of this year, from April to June, fell by 20.3 percent to 1.174 MMT, down from 1.473 MMT in the same period last year.

 

Romualdo Elvira Jr, President of the Philippine Maize Federation (PhilMaize), attributed the decline to adverse weather conditions and planting delays.

 

"We will have to wait for the harvest because some farmers planted in July. Maybe in the third quarter we can see the picture, and by then we will know the actual situation," Elvira said.

 

Figures from the PSA also showed that the country's overall farm output contracted by 3.3% in the second quarter due to weather challenges. Crop production, valued at PHP 220.04 billion (US$3.9 billion), declined by 8.6%, with corn production posting a 20.3% drop.

 

-      Business Mirror