September 16, 2003



Outlook For China's Pork Market and The Global Situation 


According to market analysts, the outlook for China's hog market for 3rd quarter of 2003 is favorable, with forecast of increases in turnover of live pigs and pork production.  Prices of live pigs and pork are also expected to rally, with good prospects seen in both import and export trade.       


For the global market, on account of the relatively low rate of production returns generated during the latter part of 2002, FAO has forecast a less than 2% increase in global pork inventory and production for year 2003.


Total world production of pork for 2003 is estimated to be in the region of 95.8 million tons.  Of this, the proportion from developing countries is expected to increase from 59% in 2002 to 60% in 2003, with Asian developing countries showing an increase of 3%.


With rise in domestic demand, Brazil's production is expected to move up by 4% this year, although this rate is lower than the double digit growth rate seen in 2002, the result of a significant surge in domestic demand in the country and export trade.  


Overall, global trade in pork is expected to grow by a meager 1% in 2003, to 4 million tons.


Japan and Russia are likely to see a drop in their pork import this year.  In the case of Japan, the lower volume of pork import is due to rising pork prices and growth in beef consumption in the country.  For Russia, the contributory factor is its implementation of tariff quota on pork import. 


Currently, Asian countries import 44% of the world's total trade in pork.  With the reduction in pork import by Japan, a 1% drop in the composition of pork import by Asian countries is expected for 2003, despite anticipated increase in pork import by China, Taiwan and Hong Kong.


US and Canada expect to see continual increase in their pork export.


On the other hand, Russia's implementation of import tariff quota is likely to put a damper on EU countries' pork export and also hamper Brazil's pork export.


After three years of continuous rapid growth, Vietnam saw a drop in its pork export in 2002.  On account of high feed prices and problems with product quality, the volume of Vietnam's pork export is expected to stay low for 2003.
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