September 15, 2010

Australian wheat exports jump to 14-year high

Australia's wheat exports are to jump to their highest since 14 years ago, official statisticians have forecast in a report unveiling huge upgrades to crop estimates following "ideal" weather.

The country's wheat production will jump 4.4 million tonnes to 25.1 million tonnes in 2010-11, making it the country's third biggest crop on record, official commodities bureau Abare said.

The figure - 3.0 million tonnes higher than the bureau's last forecast, in June – was supported by hopes of a record crop in New South Wales, which is set to see a near-doubling in production, to 9.9 million tonnes, thanks to perfect conditions across the entire winter cropping zone.

The state's fortunes stand in contrast to those of Western Australia, usually the country's top grain producer, but where drought looks set to cut output by more than one-quarter.

According to Western Australia government officials, a lack of moisture is still a major concern for the majority of the state's wheat belt, and warned that some crops, albeit mainly rapeseed, may be on course for yields of 0.2 tonnes per hectare.

Nonetheless, with eastern states "in a positive position" after above-average rains in July and August, and a wet start to September, the national harvest was set to come 1 million tonnes from the record in 2003-04.

Exports would, at 18.4 million tonnes, be bettered only by the 19.2 million tonnes in 1996-97.

The export forecast was 3.9-million higher than Abare's last estimate, in June. While the bureau failed to detail the reasoning behind its upgrade, the revision comes amid increasing evidence of alternative exporters benefiting from Russia's decision to ban grain exports following its worst drought on record.

Both the European and the US last week reported their best weekly export data in three years. A separate Abare report on Tuesday showed Australian shipments rising by one half, year on year, to 1.6 million tonnes in July.

Meanwhile, many forecasters have pegged the crop at 22-23 million tonnes, although some estimates have been lifted over the past week.