September 13, 2007

 

Wheat up, corn down in SG's EU output estimates 
 

 

Industry consultants Strategie Grains (SG) Thursday revised up its forecast for the European Union's 2007/08 wheat crop, but this was offset by a reduction in its corn production estimate.

 

SG kept its 2007/08 EU cereal crop forecast unchanged on the month at 257 million tonnes. But due to this season's adverse weather, this represents a drop of 4.5 million tonnes, or 2 percent on- year.

 

The EU 2007/08 soft wheat crop is now estimated at 114.7 million tonnes, up 600,000 tonnes from the previous month's forecast, but still down 2 percent on-year.

 

SG revised up soft wheat output in Germany, Sweden, Poland, Estonia, and Latvia, but reduced its forecasts for France, Ireland and the UK.

 

EU 2007/08 corn production is now projected at 46.2 million tonnes, marking a downward revision of 650,000 tonnes from last month's report and down 13 percent on-year.

 

SG cut is corn production forecast for Germany, Italy, Hungary and Slovakia but raised it for France.

 

The following tables list SG forecasts for 2007 production, yields and area.

 

OUTPUT (million tonnes)

                      Sept         Aug

Cereal         2007-08    2007-08    2006-07    Change On-year

Soft wheat     114.7        114.1      116.9              -2%

Barley             57.7         57.7        55.9             +3%

Corn               46.2         46.8        53.0            -13%

Durum              7.5           7.5          7.8             -5%

Rye                  8.1           7.9          6.5           +24%

Oats & other    22.9         23.0        21.3             +8%

TOTAL           257.0       257.0       261.5             -2%

 

YIELDS  (tonnes/hectare)

                       Sept         Aug

Cereal          2007-08    2007-08    2006-07    Change On-year

Soft wheat        5.2           5.2            5.4               -4%

Barley              4.2           4.2            4.1               +4%

Corn                5.8           5.9            6.3               -7%

Durum             2.8           2.8            2.9                -5%

Rye                 3.0           3.0            2.8               +7%

Oats & other     3.2           3.2            2.9             +11%

AVERAGE         4.6           4.6            4.7                -2%

 

AREA SOWN (million hectares)

                        Sept           Aug

Cereal            2007-08    2007-08    2006-07    Change On-year

Soft wheat         22.2          22.1         21.7             +2%

Barley               13.6          13.8         13.8             -1%

Corn                   7.9            7.9          8.5              -7%

Durum                2.7            2.7          2.7               0%

Rye                    2.7            2.6          2.3            +16%

Oats & other        7.1            7.2          7.3              -3%

TOTAL               56.2          56.2         56.2              0%