September 12, 2024

 

Australian grain harvest set for record highs

The UK Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) said that Australia's upcoming grain harvest could be one of the largest on record, according to projections released by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), Agriland reported.

 

According to the latest figures, Australian wheat production has seen a 9% rise from June's estimate, reaching 31.8 million tonnes (MT). This marks a 23% increase on the year and is 7% above the five-year average.

 

Barley production has also seen a boost, rising by 6% from the June estimate to 12.2MT. This represents a 13% increase on the year, although it remains 5% below the five-year average.

 

In terms of exports, the forecast has been revised upwards from June's initial estimates, now set at 7.3MT. However, this remains 4% lower than last year's figures.

 

Rapeseed production has also shown a slight increase, with a 2% rise from June's estimate to 5.5MT. However, the smaller rapeseed area—due to greater planting of cereals—has resulted in an 8% decline in production compared to last year, and it is now 3% below the five-year average.

 

The reduced rapeseed production has contributed to a 24% drop in year-on-year exports, now forecast at 4.1MT.

 

The AHDB noted that the favourable outlook for Australian wheat production could provide some relief to the current global tightness in wheat stocks among major exporters. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected a decline in global wheat stocks, forecasting an 8% drop from last year and a figure 12% below the five-year average.

 

China remains a key market for Australian barley, accounting for approximately 80% of the country's exports. However, reports suggest that Chinese purchases of imported feed grains may decline due to ample domestic supply and lower-than-expected demand. If this occurs, it could exert downward pressure on global barley markets as Australia seeks alternative export destinations.

 

Meanwhile, lower year-on-year rapeseed exports from Australia had been anticipated in the ABARES report released in June, attributed to a challenging start to the year for rapeseed production.

 

Following China's recent anti-dumping investigation into Canadian rapeseed imports, some market participants have speculated that Australian rapeseed exports to China could increase, potentially replacing Canadian supplies. However, as both countries share some similar export destinations, global rapeseed trade flows may adjust with minimal impact on overall prices.

 

-      Agriland