September 12, 2006

 

US crop progress wrap: corn unchanged; soy up slightly

 

 

The US Department of Agriculture reported Monday (Sep 11) afternoon that US corn conditions were unchanged in the good-to-excellent category from the previous week, in line with analyst expectations, while US soybean conditions improved by slightly from a week ago, also matching analyst's expectations.

 

 

Corn

 

Fifty-nine percent of the US corn crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition as of Sep 10, unchanged from a week ago and in line with analyst expectations.

 

"In theory, the overall quality improved a little as the excellent category went up one percentage point while the good went down by one," said Bill Nelson, assistant vice president with AG Edwards & Sons in St Louis.

 

Historically, this would be the time of the year when ratings tend to decline a little bit, he added.

 

In Iowa, the largest US corn-producing state, the crop was rated 65 percent in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from last week, while in number two producer Illinois, 72 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, down one percentage point from last week.

 

The USDA reported that 91 percent of the crop was in the dent stage, up from last week's 81 percent and the five-year average of 81 percent. Thirty-four percent of the crop was rated mature, equal to 2005 and slightly above the five-year average of 32 percent.

 

Six percent of the crop was reported harvested, in line with 2005 as well as the five-year average.

 

At this stage of the crop, ratings remain very good, said John Kleist of Top Third Ag Marketing. Corn's maturity is "chugging" along with the harvest occurring in the south-east and the south-west US, he added.

 

 

Soybeans

 

Sixty percent of the US soybean crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition as of Sept. 10, up one percentage point from a week ago and in line with the unchanged to the one-percentage-point increase expected by analysts.

 

Ratings have seen a steady upward trend in condition ratings over the past month, and soybeans are well above their long-term average of 53.5 percent in the good-to-excellent category at this time of year, Nelson said.

 

Most major producing states saw little change in conditions. In Illinois, the largest US soybean-producing state, 75 percent of the crop was reported in good-to-excellent condition, above last week's 74 percent. Iowa's soybean ratings increased to 74 percent in the good-to-excellent category from 71 percent last week.

 

In Minnesota, 58 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, down one percentage point from the previous week.

 

"It's hard to believe the ratings could get much better than before, but they did," said Kleist.

 

These ratings explain why the market has been sinking to contract lows, he added.

 

The USDA reported 27 percent of the crop is dropping leaves, compared to 13 percent last week and in line with the five-year average of 27 percent.

 

This implies that there was still some vitality to the soybean crop last week and it may have benefited from the rains a week ago, Nelson said.