September 9, 2005

USDA: China livestock and products annual report 2005

In July 2005, China announced approval of 52 U.S. facilities to export bovine semen and embryos to China, though China agreed to lift the ban on these BSE low risk products at the technical bilateral meetings back in November 2004. This marks the first market access for U.S. bovine products since China suspended all U.S. live cattle and beef products in December 2003. 

On July 11, 2005, USDA's Secretary Johanns and AQSIQ Minister Li initialed a bilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) regarding food safety and animal and plant health cooperation. 

Post forecasts China's beef production in 2006 at 7.6 million MT, a 6.4 percent increase from 2005. Strong demand and lagging production, combined with reduced imports due to BSE restrictions, will drive expansion of China's cattle and beef industry in 2006.

Post forecasts China's pork production during 2006 at 50.9 MMT, a 4-percent increase from 2005. Pork production will continue growing due to steady domestic consumption and export increases. 

The pork and beef production increases have offset the slower pace of broiler meat production because of avian influenza (AI) outbreaks in China. Pork prices are forecast from steady to weak due to lower feed grain prices. Pork consumption is forecast to increase 4 percent to 50.4 million MT mainly due to steady population growth.

Post forecasts China's beef imports will drop 40 percent to 6,000 MT in 2005, and during 2006 imports will remain flat because of continued BSE restrictions, domestic production increases, higher international prices and import policy changes.

The pace of growth in China's beef exports is forecast smaller, at 20 percent, to 90,000 MT in 2006. The slightly appreciated RMB will make China's exports less competitive.

For the full USDA report, click here.