September 6, 2011

Western Australia predicts winter crops production to increase

The grain production from winter crops, including wheat, is likely to exceed a long-term average of over 10 million tonnes, amounting between 11 million and 12 million tonnes, said Richard Simonaitis, the head of grain buying at Cooperative Bulk Handling Ltd on Monday (Sep 5).

Wheat output from the crop to be harvested from October through December will likely be between 7.7 million and 8.4 million tonnes, based on the fact that the grain usually accounts for 70% of winter crop output. This would be sharply higher than actual drought-reduced output of 4.7 million tonnes in the year ended March 31.

"The past two months of rain has helped keep the season outlook positive," Simonaitis said. "With the prospects of some finishing rains and ideal growing conditions prevailing, production potential is more encouraging than in recent years."

CBH operates a near monopoly over storage and export grain logistics in Western Australia, including almost 200 upcountry storage sites and four coastal export terminals.

Western Australia, which historically accounts for up to 40% of national wheat production, is not the only state predicting a large crop this harvest, as most parts of Eastern Australia are also on track for a big season, he added, without providing additional forecasts.

Forecasts for national wheat production range between NAB.AU's 21.8 million tonnes and a 26.2 million tonnes projection by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.

Australia is usually one of the world's top five wheat exporters after annual domestic demand of six million tonnes is met.