September 3, 2025
Australia forecasts record beef supply with herd steady at 31 million
Australia's beef industry is on track to break production records in 2025, according to Meat & Livestock Australia's (MLA) latest Australian Cattle Industry Projections – September Update.
Despite a slight easing in herd numbers, the national cattle herd is forecast to remain stable at 31 million head, supported by strong seasonal conditions in the north and strategic herd management in the south.
MLA acting market information manager Erin Lukey said these figures reflect the latest seasonal, market and production data
"These projections are a vital tool for the red meat industry. They provide a clear, evidence-based outlook that helps producers, processors and exporters make informed decisions," said Lukey
"By understanding the trends in herd composition, production capacity and global demand, the industry can better plan for the future and remain competitive in a dynamic global market."
The assumptions are based on a better-than-average spring season outlook. The Bureau of Meteorology's latest outlook suggests spring conditions will diverge from the past two years, with much of the east coast having a 75% chance of above-median rainfall. If realised, the impact will vary by region.
Slaughter is forecast to rise 8.6 % to 9.02 million head in 2025, supported by robust cattle supply and processing capacity.
Carcase weights are expected to remain stable at 309.5 kilogrammes (kg) per head, a historically high level. This stability is underpinned by a strong proportion of grainfed cattle in the slaughter mix and solid feed availability following autumn rainfall.
While increased female slaughter typically reduces average weights, the impact has been offset by improved pasture conditions resulting in higher quality cows, and the continued trend of finishing cattle at heavier weights through feedlots and improved pasture systems.
"The herd has evolved to support higher turn-off without compromising productivity," Lukey said.
"This is a reflection of improved breeding efficiency and a shift toward more strategic herd management across the board."
Beef exports are forecast to reach 1.5 million tonnes shipped weight in 2025, as Australia continues to capitalise on global supply constraints caused by declining production in key competitor markets such as the United States and Brazil.
With the US progressing into a herd rebuild phase and Brazil facing herd contraction following heavy slaughter and drought recovery, Australia is uniquely positioned to meet rising international demand.
This export strength is further supported by Australia's robust processing capacity, consistent product quality, and long-standing trade relationships across North Asia, North America, and Southeast Asia.
The herd is expected to remain stable through 2026 before easing slightly in 2027 due to drier seasonal conditions. However, ongoing improvements in carcase weights and processing efficiency are expected to support high production levels.
This stability is supported by consistent seasonal conditions in northern Australia and cautious stocking practices in the south, where producers are prioritising core breeding stock over expansion.
"The industry's focus is shifting from expansion to maintaining productivity and sustainability," Lukey said.
"This positions the industry well to respond to both domestic and international demand in the years ahead, ensuring that Australia continues to lead in efficiency, quality and resilience across the global red meat supply chain."
In 2026, producers are expected to adopt more cautious stocking practices after turning off unproductive stock. Slaughter is forecast to ease 3.3% to 8.72 million head. By 2027, lower herd numbers and a stabilising of demand are expected to weigh on turn-off, with slaughter declining a further 4.4% to 8.34 million head.
- Beef Central
