September 3, 2024

Mexico's meat consumption and production set for growth over the next decade

Meat consumption and production in Mexico are expected to rise significantly over the next decade, according to a report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) titled Agricultural Projections to 2033, Meat + Poultry reported.

The report projects that Mexico's combined consumption of poultry, pork, and beef will reach 82.5 kg per capita by 2033. This figure represents approximately two-thirds of the projected total US meat consumption, which is expected to be 124 kg per capita.

Poultry consumption in Mexico is anticipated to see the most substantial increase, rising from 38.3 kg per person in 2023 to 43.8 kg in 2033. Pork consumption is also expected to grow, from 20.2 kg to 22.6 kg per capita over the same period. Beef consumption will see a more modest increase, moving from 15.7 kg to 16 kg per person.

To meet the growing demand for meat, Mexico is likely to increase both its imports and domestic production. The USDA report forecasts that Mexico's chicken and pork imports will grow by 31% and 17%, respectively, over the next decade. Conversely, beef imports are expected to decrease by 5%. Additionally, imports of corn, soybeans, and soybean meal are projected to rise as Mexico ramps up its livestock production. Between 2023 and 2033, the country's meat production is expected to increase by 22% for chicken, 24% for pork, and 25% for beef.

The USDA noted that the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was implemented by the US, Mexico, and Canada on January 1, 1994, played a key role in creating a more integrated market among the three countries. This integration is reflected in the USDA's 2033 projections. For Mexico, NAFTA marked a shift from a system of strict import administration through licensing requirements and tariffs to one of tariff- and quota-free trade with the United States and Canada.

NAFTA's successor, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which took effect on July 1, 2020, continues to provide market access provisions, including those governing agricultural trade between the US and Mexico. The USDA's projections assume that these provisions will remain in effect throughout the projection period from 2024 to 2033.

Between 1993 and 2023, Mexico's corn imports more than quadrupled, soybean imports increased by 190%, and soybean meal imports grew by 47%, with most of these imports going toward feed use. During the same period, Mexico's meat production increased by 183% for chicken, 80% for pork, and 26% for beef, according to the USDA's Production, Supply, and Distribution estimates.

-      Meat + Poultry