September 3, 2010
Russia's target for next year's grain production at 85 million tonnes
To stabilise the situation, Russia needs to harvest 85-90 million tonnes of grain next year, Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik told President Dmitry Medvedev at a meeting in Saratov, capital of a region damaged by the drought.
This year's harvest is expected to fall to 60-65 million tonnes as a result of a searing heat wave, from the 97 million tonnes harvested in 2009.
"We believe that this target can be reached. For this, we plan to sow 18 million hectares with winter grains and 30 million hectares with spring grains. So, if we sow 50 million (hectares), we will get 80 million tonnes," Skrynnik said.
The minister did not say where the remainder of the targeted grain volumes will come from.
First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov said last month that the drought had cut the area the country planned to use for winter grain sowing by a third to 12 million hectares and therefore the spring sowing area should be increased by six million hectares.
Analysts said this target could be reached only partially due to shortages of grain for sowing and farm machinery.
The drought has forced last year's third-largest wheat exporter to ban grain exports from August 15.
Officials and analysts said that Russia may have to import 3-6 million tonnes of grain as a consequence in the current 2010/11 crop year, which started on July 1. However, Medvedev told the meeting that despite the drought, Russia has sufficient grain, with carryover stocks of some 21-25 million tonnes. "There are no grounds for a deficit in our country," he said.
The state statistics office, Rosstat has estimated the country's grain carryover stocks at 21.7 million tonnes by July 1 this year, while the Agriculture Ministry has insisted that the data did not take into account small farms and the stocks in fact were equal to 24 million tonnes.
Leading agricultural analysts SovEcon said last week it estimated the country's carryover stocks at 20.2 million tonnes as of July 1.
