September 1, 2025

 

Thai seafood exports to US face US$140 million loss amid tariff hike 

 

 

The United States (US) is Thailand's largest seafood market and the world's top importer, with annual purchases averaging three million tonnes valued at around ฿811 billion (US$25.05 billion) over the past decade.

 

Thailand has consistently recorded a trade surplus in fisheries, averaging ฿40.55 billion (US$1.25 billion) per year from 2015 to 2024, with the surplus reaching ฿47.08 billion (US$1.45 billion) in 2024 alone.

 

According to head of the international fisheries trade analysis group at the Department of Fisheries Praphan Noradee, Thai seafood exports to the US account for 21.79 percent of total export value, averaging 236,255 tonnes worth ฿46.41 billion (US$1.43 billion) annually. Over the past decade, export volumes have grown by 3.09% per year, while export value has increased by 2.26 %.

 

Key export products include shrimp, marine fish, tuna and seasonings.

 

The new 19% tariff rate is roughly in line with Thailand's main competitors – Indonesia at 19 % and Vietnam at 20 % . Ecuador faces a slightly lower tariff at 15%, while India's rate is higher at 25 %.

 

Praphan noted that Thailand is not disadvantaged compared with competitors, but higher overall US import tariffs will depress market demand and increase exporters' costs.

 

Exports are projected to shrink by five to 10 per cent this year, equivalent to a volume drop of 12,321-24,641 tonnes and a value loss of ฿2.41 billion (US$74.40 million) -฿4.82 billion (US$148.80 million).

 

For Thai shrimp, an additional challenge looms as a new round of anti-dumping (AD) reviews is due on October 5. At present, Thai shrimp faces an AD duty of 0.81 %, which combined with the reciprocal tariff totals 19.81%. One option under consideration is to settle with the petitioners via a Changed Circumstance Review (CCR), which would permanently eliminate the AD duty if Thailand pays US$10-US$12 million (about ฿350-420 million).

 

This would reduce the effective AD rate to zero, though the outcome depends on the forthcoming review. On the import side, Thailand buys fisheries products from the US such as salmon, Alaskan pollock and fresh or frozen tuna.

 

Most are subject to duties between zero to five percent, with frozen salmon already tariff-free and salmon fillets taxed at five percent.

 

-      Borneo Bulletin