August 31, 2011
Global soy output revised down
The forecast for global soy output in 2011-12 has been adjusted by the International Grains Council (IGC) to 258.1 million tonnes, declining by 2%, as output in the US and China will likely plummet drastically.
Global soy production may be 3% lower, IGC said in its monthly report for August.
The council uses an aggregate of the marketing years of major producing and trading countries to arrive at estimates.
The fall is almost entirely due to lower output in the US, where unfavourably hot and dry weather has reduced yield prospects, IGC said.
Combined with slightly lower acreage, it will result in an 8.2% decline in the country's output to a three-year low of 83.2 million tonnes.
The US is the world's largest producer and exporter of soy.
US soy exports in the marketing year that begins October 1 may fall 6.5% to 38.1 million tonnes, while soymeal exports may fall 5% to 7.8 million tonnes.
Chinese soy production is forecast to fall 11.2% to 13.5 million tonnes due to lower acreage, boosting imports to a record 56 million tonnes.
China is the world's top soy importer.
Global soy trade may expand 4.2% to a record 96.4 million tonnes next year, while soymeal trade may rise two million tonnes to a record 60.3 million tonnes, IGC said.
The EU's soymeal imports are forecast at a four-year high of 23.6 million tonnes, while East Asia's imports may rise 3.7% to 16.7 million tonnes.
Argentina's soymeal exports may rise 11% to 30 million tonnes.