August 30, 2023
China's pork industry faces mixed prospects for 2024, predicts USDA report
According to the latest insights from the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Global Information Agricultural Network, China's pork industry in 2024 is expected to see a slight drop in production, and a rise in live swine imports, Swineweb reported.
The comprehensive report showed a projection of a 1% decline in both swine production and pork products within China for the upcoming year. However, a substantial 20% upswing is anticipated in live swine imports, signifying an estimated inflow of 6,000 head during 2024. This surge in imports is a pivotal stride in China's endeavours to reinvigorate its swine herd, although the numerical figures remain historically modest.
China's swine production sector has been affected by low prices for swine and pork, resulting in financial losses throughout the industry. Over the preceding year, many companies were forced to liquidate their livestock. Smaller producers have shut down. This has led to a declining trajectory for the country's average sow inventory, with further downward adjustments projected for both 2023 and 2024.
With the forthcoming reduction in swine slaughter, the report unfolds expectations of a parallel dip in pork production. The envisaged pork output for 2024 hovers around 55.95 million metric tonnes. Forecasts for China's pork consumption indicate steadiness or marginal reduction within the same year. Economic adversities are also poised to persist throughout 2024. The Chinese government is poised to uphold its emphasis on ensuring consistent pork prices throughout the year.
In a strategic response to the moderation in domestic production, the report envisions a surge in pork product imports for 2023, surging to 2.32 million metric tonnes. This increment reflects an 8% surge in contrast to the levels witnessed in 2022. While the trajectory of pork imports demonstrates a marginal upswing spanning between 2022 and 2024, the figures are poised to attain only approximately half of the import volumes recorded in 2020.
Projected imports remain markedly subdued compared to the influx seen in 2021. The import sources for China's pork exhibit a diversified composition, encompassing nations such as Spain, Brazil, Denmark, the Netherlands, Canada, and the US.
- Swineweb
