August 28, 2024

 

Drought key factor in decline of New Zealand's cattle numbers

 

 

Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ) has released its annual Stock Number Survey, showing a notable decline in both sheep and cattle numbers as of June 30, 2024.

 

The reduction follows significant decreases in the past couple of years. While the primary driver in previous years has been land-use change as a result of the conversion of sheep and beef farms into forestry, this year's primary driver was drought in key sheep and beef regions.

 

Drought has seen farmers needing to destock and impacted the outlook for lamb production for the coming season. 

 

Beef cattle numbers are down 2.8% overall, most significantly in the South Island, where drought led to a 7.1% decrease, while the North Island is relatively steady, down 0.8%. 

 

"This year has been particularly tough for sheep and beef farmers," said Kate Acland, chair of B+LNZ. "The combination of drought across many parts of the country, high costs, and low sheep prices and has put immense pressure on farmers. 

 

"Farmers are facing tough decisions on their farms, with many having to sell off capital livestock not only due to drought but for cashflow reasons. This will not only affect their income this year but will also have long-term implications for future profitability." 

 

B+LNZ's report indicates that the number of beef cattle may recover more quickly as prices have remained strong for beef and farmers have been switching from sheep to cattle. 

 

The early destocking, lower stock numbers overall, and current desire to rebuild livestock (in regions impacted by adverse weather events) is contributing to a shortage of animals available for processing. This is exacerbated by lower bull numbers due to less calves reared two years ago when profit margins were low. 

 

Acland said the challenges of the last few years are likely to have wide-ranging and lasting repercussions. 

 

"The long-term decline in stock numbers is concerning, it directly impacts the ongoing sustainability of farming and rural communities," Acland added. "Our sector is an economic powerhouse, generating significant export revenue and supporting the livelihoods of thousands of Kiwis across the country, so these impacts will be felt by the whole economy.

 

"While current conditions are tough, the medium-term outlook remains positive, we've weathered downturns before, and I remain optimistic about the future. Worldwide demand for high-quality sustainably produced protein is growing and New Zealand is well placed to fill this demand."

 

- Beef + Lamb New Zealand