August 22, 2012

India's 2012-13 major crop production may drop 2.3%

Following poor kharif sowing due to weak progress of the south-west monsoon, India's major crop output is expected to decline by 2.3% in 2012-13.

"Major crop production is projected to fall by 2.3% in 2012-13. We have revised the magnitude of fall from 0.5% to a steeper 2.3%. A change in base, along with poor kharif sowings have prompted the downward revision," Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in monthly report.

Kharif sowings have dipped by 9.2% to 735 lakh hectares by August 3, it said. The poor progress of the south-west monsoon has taken a toll on sowings of all major crops, barring sugarcane. Coarse grains and pulses have been the worst affected, with the acreage decreasing by 6%.

"We project the coarse grain production to decline for the second consecutive year in 2012-13. A fall in acreage will limit the output to 38.5 million tonnes," the report said.

Bajra production is likely to decline by over 20% to eight million tonnes as the acreage has fallen by 27% to 46 lakh hectares, following reduced sowings in Rajasthan.

Pulses output is also expected to decline by 1.3% due to 16.8% decrease in acreage at 72.8 lakh hectares. However, the production of arhar and gram is projected to rise due to wider scale of cultivation, CMIE said.

Cultivation of rice has also been affected by 8.7% due to weak monsoon to 236 lakh hectares by August 3, hence, this is likely to lower the output by 1.9% to 102.3 million tonnes, according to the report.

Wheat production is estimated to remain stable at levels similar to last year. Overall food grain production is expected to fall by 2% due to lower out of both cereals and pulses, it added.